The CASCADIA cutting area may be worse than fear

When the earthquake is torn along the CASCADIA integration area, most of the American West Coast can be shaken violently for five minutes, and a tsunami can from 100 feet length towards the beach. But this is just the beginning of the expected horrors.

Even if the coastal cities in North California, Oregon and Washington stand up to this seismic attack, new research indicates that the flood water can leak into many of these weak societies for good. This is because the entire coastal coasts are expected to decrease by up to 6 feet when it strikes the earthquake, according to a new research published on Monday in the facts of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers analyzed seismic modeling and floods to produce some of the most detailed estimates of how the CASCADIA earthquake – or calms down – the coastal coast and found that it could affect more than twice the number of people, structures and roads currently at risk. The effect will also exacerbate over time, as climate change intensifies sea levels.

“This danger will continue for decades or centuries after the earthquake,” said Tina Dura, the main author of the study. “Tsunami will come and wash it and have great effects, do not make me wrong, but the permanent change in the frequency of floods … must be dealt with.”

The team runs the Vibracore platform in Siletz Bay, Ore. , To collect the deep sediments to deposit the tsunami and the old analysis in 2022. The nuclei will help researchers better understand the history of the great earthquakes.

Dura said that the geological fossil evidence indicates that the former Cascadia earthquakes immediately dropped the Earth level and turned into the dry land to the tidal clay in the estuary of rivers along the northwest of the Pacific Ocean.

“This will happen again and we have built a lot of these areas,” said Dura, a professor of assistant in Earth Sciences at the University of Virginia Technology. “This is how we have ports there … and this is the place where we built cities, and all that region will come down, perhaps more than one meter, up to two meters.”

The error of the integration area in CASCADIA, which extends outward along the western coast of North America from North California to the North Vancouver island, represents a threat to wave on the horizon. The error has the ability to produce an earthquake of 9.0, and it is expected that there will be a large temblor there at least once every 450-500 years, on average. Another of these main earthquakes happened in 1700.

The national seismic risk model indicates a 15 % chance of an earthquake of a volume of -8.0 or stronger along the margins of the region during the next fifty years.

When the error is torn, the experts said, this will hurry the worst natural disaster in the country's history. A 2022 state planning exercise predicted for about 14,000 deaths, more than 100,000 injuries and the collapse of about 620,000 buildings in the northwest of the Pacific, including 100 hospitals and 2000 schools.

The new research indicates that the coastal planners should be calculated seriously not only to threaten severe shake and tsunami, but also to resist in the long term and the rapid drowning of the coast itself.

“There is the same flood, then there is a permanent change in the Earth level on the coast, which has a major impact on what these societies should plan,” said Harold Topin, director of the seismic network in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and a professor at Washington University, who did not participate in the new research. “Where will you put your school or hospital? Where will you build your transport network? I think it is important to take a long view.”

After the earthquake, Dura Research indicates large parts of cities along the northwestern coast of the Pacific, such as SEASIDE, Oregon; Westport, Washington; It is expected to overflow, Washington, at least once every 100 years, if not more.

The study also indicates that sea level rise is accelerating with the intensification of climate change, and that the effects of post -Erthquaked flood may get worse in the future.

A field team is going through the escape of the Salon River in Oregon, carrying drying and scanning equipment to the next sampling site in 2023. The researchers appointed deposits and samples of samples to rebuild the geological history of the earthquake -based landing.

The average global sea levels have risen by about 8 to 9 inches since 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Sea levels are expected to accelerate significantly in the coming decades due to global warming, as NOAA 10 to 12 inches expect average by the middle of the century.

You can determine where you live how the high sea level of the dramatic sea level appears, and how it affects the coastal line.

While the Earth in some areas in the United States, such as the Chisabik Bay in Virginia, slowly drown in a decline, as parts of the northwest of the Pacific rising due to the continental height. This height in Earth level has compensated some of the sea level levels so far.

The height is the result of building stress within the tectonic panels that make up the integration area in Cascadi abroad. In the integration area, the Juan de Voca plate is forced under the North American continental plate. This causes the North American plate to bend up slightly, which pushes the ground level up.

At the present time, the error of the integration area is calm and stress. When the rift is tear, the bowing will be released from the plate and causes a rapid decline in the ground level, mainly wiping centuries of height in a moment.

“This happens in minutes, and it can be in the order of a meter,” he said. “The Earth is still ongoing, and it can be, as I said, decades and horns. Thus, any regions have become on the threshold of the flood plains now.”

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