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Scientists discover the key to taming the risk of the earthquake in Camp Fleege Caldera in Italy
The ground thermal energy well in the area where the underground water is drained towards Pozzuoli. It shows a clear rise in water pressure levels between 2018, the left, and 2024. credit: (left: Terme Di Ageno; right: Tiziana Vanorio)
Seismic swarms were heading to southern Italy with an increase in severity since 2022, threatening hundreds of thousands of people living over a volcanic area known as Camp Fleegeri, where the Earth faces slow vertical movements.
While the authorities discuss disaster responses and evacuation protocols, researchers may have found a way to fully thwart periodic disorders: by managing water flow or reducing groundwater levels, thus reducing fluid pressure within the ground thermal tank.
Through surface photography and laboratory experiments, Stanford scientists showed how the accumulation of pressure from water and steam in the tank can cause Camp Flegi to earthquakes when it is Cabru or the cover.
The research, published in Science Advances, shows that the frequent tank was behind deformation and earthquakes in the early eighties and again over the past fifteen years, ultimately determining the basic mechanism.
The results are widely challenged that the shaking is driven by magma or gases that rise to the depth of shallow when melting moves from a deep melting area to the top to the upper surface under the volcanic region. They also reveal how to gradually recharge the water, the tank affects the rate of deformation and changes in the height of the Earth.
“To address the problem, we can manage surface flow and water flow, or even reduce pressure by pulling fluids from wells,” said the prominent study author Tiziana Vanorerio, a professor participating in Earth Sciences and Planets at Stanford School.
The researchers analyzed the frequent patterns and the common properties in photographing the under the surface and earthquakes from the most recent disorders in Campi Flegrei.
It is characterized by the lifting of lands and explosive -like shaking, accompanied by roar sounds that have become a signature of the population, scientists suspect that this activity indicates steam explosions, which are operated when liquid water rapidly flashes for steam while breaking the earthquake. The study includes data from 1982-1984 and 2011-2024 disorders.
“We have looked at something that happened decades, but there are deep similarities in photography, which not only indicates a periodic pattern of phenomenon but also for a common basic reason,” said Grazia de Landro, a researcher participating in Stanford.
“From there the idea of working together, especially looking at rock physics. The use of rock physics is the only way to say something quantitative about photographing the lower surface.”
The Campi Flegrei Volcanic area hosts a natural thermal tank under the town of Pozzzuoli, west of Napoli and Mount Vizovius. The region has been continuously monitored since the turmoil in 1982-1984, when the Earth rose more than 6 feet and Pozzuoli port became so shallow that ships are no longer able to the sidewalk. Next, an earthquake of 4 and thousands of fine columns prompted the evacuation of 40,000 people from Pozzuoli.
“It has been a challenge over the past three years. Many buildings have been affected by constant shake, and some people have no homes,” said Vanorerio, who grew up in Bozououli and forced to evacuate in the 1980s.
“This project is my goal as a citizen now, not only as a geophysical doctor, because the study indicates that the disorders can be managed, instead of monitoring them only, opening the way for prevention.”
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“Breathe” land
Campi Flegrei is CALDERA at the level of 8 miles, and it is a vast depression formed by large revolutions for about 39,000 and 15,000 years, causing the land surface to collapse.
Caldera suffers from height and landing, with the height and drowning of the ground, even without an eruption. After the disturbances in 1982-1984, the area sank about 3 feet. In order for a decline, the mass must be released from the surface under the surface, which can include magma, water, steam and carbon dioxide.
Pozzzuoli residents notice the way CALDERA breathes, emitting the fumes and moving the ground, and sometimes a meter or bottom in a short period.
Historically, the rise in volcanic areas has been widely accepted as linked to the re-filling processes associated with magma, which assumes that magma and/or its gases are an essential engine for deformation and then earthquakes-but this may not always be the case, according to the results of the study.
While some researchers have begun to explore the relationship between rain and earthquakes in the past decade, the study shows that it is not the same precipitation, but rather the pressure resulting from slow, but fixed in the sealed tank that leads to cracking, and thus vibrating.
“We know that the annual contrast in rain has risen over the past 24 years, so what must be monitored is the level of accumulation of groundwater in the subway, or ensuring directing the direct flow of water.”
The sealing interval has evolved in the volcanic Campi Flegrei area since 2015. On the surface, the earthquake vehicles initially gather around the Pozzzuoli-PISCIRARLLI spring, where the water ultimately accumulates. Over time, earthquakes expand to cover a wider circular space on a large scale within the hydrological water gatherings, which reflects the experiences of rock and soil physics from the twentieth century in which water spreads from a point source in almost a spherical pattern. Data from istituto nazionale di geofisica e vulcanologia (ingv). Credit: Tiziana Vanorio and Ingv a closed system
One of the prominent features of Campi Flegrei is the fibrobor nature of the Caprook over the ground thermal tank. Fiberial materials are used in engineering for structural reinforcement, as they can deformation without fracture immediately. They can collect stress, which can be launched in the volcanic system in the end through a sudden eruption of roasted water, steam, and volcanic ash.
The researchers examined 24 years of rainfall, under the surface water flow trends, and the Caprock seal process to understand the recharge of the ground thermal tank and the accumulation of pressure. In Vanorio's physics and geological laboratory, they showed how cracks in the Caprock seal through rock mineral reactions with water thermal water and steam.
To test the Caprock properties, the authors of the study conducted experiments using a water thermal container that works like a familiar tool for many Italians: Moka, or espresso Mustob.
They filled the lower room with a saline and upper solution with volcanic ash and the typical crushed rocks of the Campi Flegrei, then they heated the bowl to the temperature in the ground thermal tank. Within one day, mineral fibers, cracks in the rock layer were formed quickly through cement.
This creates a closed system that allows fluid pressure to accumulate to break the surrounding rocks. Cracking from earthquakes leads to a sudden decrease in liquid pressure, as liquid water flashes in steam and escapes. “This produces explosive bursts and a typical prosperous sounds of the region,” Vanusio said.
Researchers have applied multiple specializations to detect how Campi Flegrei works as a closed system, including surface surface imaging, which was carried out by De Landro using earthquake records to create a branch images that can be analyzed such as a tomography examination.
“The surface photography is through the geophysical methods is like the old door bell: it tells us that someone is ringing at the door, but he does not say who it is. Therefore, the interpretation of the pictures of tomography in the laboratory-this is what makes this cooperation between earthquakes very strong.”
New model
Cow imaging analyzes contributed along with the earthquake site and reach them in the theory of researchers that repeated escape may not be driven by re -filling gases or gas emissions from the system. During both episodes of disturbances, earthquakes inside Cabruk began at a relatively shallow depth of about 1 miles.
“After visualizing the temporal development of earthquakes, you can see a very clear pattern-the depth of earthquakes over time,” said Tianiang Quh, a post-PhD scientist in visual science.
If the magma or its gases that rise to shallow depths are the main driver of the disorders, then we expect the opposite style – where Earthquakes begins near the deeper melting area, about 5 miles under the surface, and gradually becomes shallow over time, according to researchers. Moreover, the magma that rises without an eruption cannot explain the decline after the turmoil, Vanorerio said.
The reasonable interpretation of landing is the noticeable drainage of water and steam after breaking the seismic activity, which naturally releases pressure inside the tank.
Through their new model of the internal Campi Flegrei works, the researchers hope to communicate the mechanisms that cause the boiling system unrest to local Italian government officials.
“I call it an ideal storm for geology – you have all the ingredients to get the storm: the system of the system – molten magma, fuel in the ground thermal tank, and the cover.”
“We cannot act on the stove but we have the ability to manage fuel. By restoring water channels, monitoring groundwater, and managing tank pressure, we can transform Earth sciences towards a more active approach – such as preventive health care – to discover early risks and prevent disorders before it is revealed. This is the way the science provides society.”
Davide Geremia, a former post -doctoral researcher at the Vanorio Laboratory, is a co -author of the study.
More information: Tiziana Vanorio, Repeating Geophysical Manifestations in Campi Flegrei Caldera, Science Advances (2025). Doi: 10.1126/Sciaadv.adt2067. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adt2067
Introduction from Stanford University
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