A step forward in predicting the earthquake

Dr. Yelona Van Endhir, Associate Professor at Utrecht University, is a pioneer in the research in earthquakes and tectonic movements for many years. Its last project, which is to reset the ERC Consolidator project, aims to significantly improve earthquake expectations, how, and perhaps even when they happen.

As showed the date, large earthquakes can pose a major global threat with severe consequences. However, it is believed that the prediction of the earthquake site, size and timing is impossible. Now, thanks to new discoveries and progress in technology, researchers make great achievements towards earthquakes.

Dr. Yelona Van Endhir, Associate Professor of Earthquake and Talk Physics at Utrecht University, studied earthquakes and tactics for many years. Her research interests extend over tectonic fields. Tech tactovia earthquake. Earthquake, rock mechanics error; The dynamics of the scarf and structural geology.

The first major breakthrough in Dr. Van Valler's research came when she was a pioneer in bridging time scales of tectonic time scales (millions of years) towards an earthquake scales (milliliters) in numerical models, and received several prizes for her. She then expanded her experience through the pioneer of applying data -based data accommodation techniques to predict the earthquake with physics -based models.

Recently, Dr. Van Verther was granted funding from the European Research Council (ERC) for a new project designed to predict better earthquakes and understand surface movements. The project to reset (the theory of the huge earthquake system) will benefit from the previous achievements and experience of Dr. Van Van Delter to improve the conclusions of earthquake sites and sizes significantly-to a limited limit-until timing.

To learn more about her research so far and how this will move to the new reset project, the innovation platform spoke to Dr. Van Borez.

What are the main areas of focus in your work?

I work through many specializations related to the field of tectonovimia – tectonic layers.

One of my main research areas is earthquakes, understanding where, when, how, and why it happens. Study natural earthquakes – focus mainly on very large earthquakes such as those in Sumatra, Japan and Chile – as well as small, induced seismology caused by human interventions in the first few kilometers of Earth.

My work focuses on human earthquakes mainly on the gas field in Grenneen-District in the northeast of the Netherlands. We are used to extracting large quantities of natural gas from there. However, as earthquake continues to increase in quantity and size and become too much for residents, all gas extraction activities stopped. In the past decade, unprecedented amounts of data have been collected, making this a natural laboratory of world -class to understand earthquake physics. We need to learn from this exceptional case study to help provide sustainable solutions to transfer energy in our society, which requires the storage of the Earth and our temperature capacity.

I also study tectonia – the movement of large solid panels that cover the first 100 km of Earth. I use my research in this field to inform my understanding of earthquakes and things like how the mountains are formed, using numerical models to do so. I also accommodate data – integrate these numerical models strongly with notes.

What are your main priorities and goals at the present time?

In the past few years, my work has focused mainly on the earthquakes caused by a person in Grenneen. From a social perspective, this was a very urgent issue. I felt I had to complete the answer to the most important question, “To what extent can earthquakes get?” , With information from physics.

My main goals are essential in terms of understanding of earthquake physics. My team's work aims to determine a place, when, and why will earthquakes start and where they will stop. If you know where the earthquakes start and stop, you can get a good idea about the size of the earthquake. We try to use this collected information from physics -based models and observations to report risk evaluation, which people and policy makers can use. We also try to transfer our learning from gas extraction to a more sustainable activity that can benefit from the surface under the surface, such as the thermal energy, the storage of hydrogen and carbon dioxide.

While induced earthquakes have been my main priority over the past five years, I have also linked some data absorption work. The data absorbing is mainly a weather – the application of the techniques used to predict the weather to see if it can, and how they can work to predict earthquakes.

I kept working a little on natural earthquakes and this is something I will work on much more with the reset project. To date, you have mainly employed the project. It is sufficient to say that a promising team meets.

Besides my research, I also study. Currently, I create two new sessions for BSC – land systems, Earth heat, dynamics and risk.

What are the main achievements in your work so far?

At MSC at Utrecht University, I imagined that we could gain a lot of understanding if we can use numerical models to simulate the layers for millions of years as well as to simulate earthquakes on Meliki's time scales. Bed time scales, models and societies have developed during the doctorate at Eth Zürich. When a doctorate started, most people thought this is impossible. However, as soon as I made it clear that it was already possible, a lot of opportunities were opened. After this achievement, senior scientists and lecturers at Eth Zürich offered me. Here, a group of six PhD students led and stayed for five years to develop this trend more with doctoral students.

While I was expanding the numerical Seismo-Tectonics field, I also faced the challenge of working while absorbing the data-based data. In studying the concept, we wanted to test whether we could use weather prediction to predict earthquakes. Again, people thought this would not be possible because we have much lower data than the inner part of the ground more than we do in the atmosphere. However, we found that we did not need a lot of data. There is a strong possibility to use data absorption to predict the earthquake, but there are still many challenges that must be overcome. It is a big task and it is not easy to do, but I will continue to work on this on the project of reset as well.

Finally, my group explained last year the reason for the occurrence of earthquakes in the rocks that were previously unable to maintain the start of earthquakes, and what are the effects of continuing to use the surface under the surface. Along with my colleagues, we are also the first to provide physics -based information about the maximum sizes of human earthquakes as inputs to assess the operational seismic risks.

Can you tell us more about what is the re -setting project and how will this previous business be completed?

The re -set project mainly depends on my first main achievement. The first was to bridge the time scales of the plate tectonic towards earthquakes. Save this unified system perspective, instead of seeing things as different fields and different spatial components unrelated, we can see how they are associated. It was really exciting, because we expected that some notes should occur on the surface of the earth that we have not noticed yet. Soon after, these vertical movements of the Earth's surface were measured more accurate and we can see that there may be a reality in our predictions. This information will be very important to create a picture or map of the location of errors – large fractures of the Earth's crust – and will move. Scientists have done this for two to two decades, but only with horizontal movements. These vertical movements tell us much more about where there are errors, and at any depth. However, we can a better picture of the future earthquake.

Research in tectonic painting is learned to understand how mountains are formed, as earthquakes occur, and where mineral and energy resources can be found. © Shutterstock/LZF

However, we need to do a lot of work to be able to implement these accounts quickly. We need very fast digital models and a new photography frame to be able to calculate the header movements of the Earth's surface. Reset focuses on developing this new framework and operating it forward and back to know the movements and operations that occur before and after earthquakes.

Scientists traditionally carry out this photography and analysis either before, during or after an earthquake. By merging notes before, or after earthquakes, the team will have a lot of data to the error movements in the image better, the appreciation of the parameters, and the understanding of the Earth's operations. Our fixed transformation into the concept of the system will allow us to prepare the theory of the most founding Earth Sciences of the Painting Testament for new discoveries.

This will build the first probability assessment of seismic risks based on the first material principles. We hope to give us a good indication of the place where large earthquakes will occur. The latest satellite notes indicate that we may receive indications that large earthquakes may come. If this is really the case, we may be able to say something about the timing of earthquakes. The prediction of the earthquake is impossible – it is very difficult, and it has very few notes, and it is very unprecedented. However, we can say something likely, using statistics to estimate the chances of some events. If we can integrate all data and physics at the system level, we may be able to take an important step forward in the probability prediction of earthquakes.

What are your plans for the near and long future?

To reach our five -year goal, we first need to build these seismological system models in the next two years. We did it in 2D in C and with a simple use of multiple computers at the same time to make it quickly, but we need to do it faster. We will use new high -performance computing technologies that depend on GPUs and use solutions to calculate the solution without building the entire matrix.

Large earthquakes can also lead to tsunami. Together they affect approximately 40 % of the world's population. © Shutterstock/Fotokita

We are building on what some colleagues have already done for ice movements and other tectonic processes of the painting. We will add the physics that we need to earthquakes and adapt our applications. This research will focus on the areas of spread, where the paintings collide with each other. The heaviest part decreases to the scarf, deep in the ground. The largest part is always the ocean, and it is the bottom of the ocean that will decrease. These movements in this interface between two paintings we want to photograph. These are the large earthquakes that occur only once every few hundred years. However, when they do, they shake the entire region and the entire planet with them. After the TOHOKU 2011 earthquake in Japan that caused the nuclear disaster, the whole world was shocking. It is rare, but in reality, approximately 40 % of the world's population lives in areas that can be affected by these large earthquakes. These earthquakes also tend to generate a tsunami, which affects many coasts in which many people live.

Please note that this article will also appear in the twenty -second version of our quarterly publication.

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