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Japan reviews the 30 -year average of Nankai TRAGAI MEGAQUKE

Japan reviews the 30 -year average of Nankai TRAGAI MEGAQUKE


A governmental committee said it now believes that a huge earthquake will happen along the Nankai basin with a possibility of 60 % to 94.5 % or higher over the next thirty years.

In a report issued on Friday, the earthquake research committee sought the possibility for a period of 8 to 9 earthquakes that occur off the country's Pacific coast from the “about 80 %” that it announced previously. The change was the result of the lack of signs in the previous land lifting data from the port of Moroto in Kochi Governorate and the accumulation of the non -fixed plate.

“The actual earthquake is an unpredictable natural phenomenon,” said Nouchi Hirata, Al -Honi Professor at Tokyo University and the head of the committee. “We cannot say clearly when it will happen. It may be more than 30 years but may come within a year.”

Megaquakes occurred along the Nankai basin once every 90 to 150 years. The last one, size of 8, occurred in 1946.

The long-term seismic assessment report also showed a 20-50 % probability of probability.

Although it cannot be scientifically identified, that is, the evaluation is superior, the committee said: “The higher opportunities in the Nankai earthquake must be highlighted to raise the awareness of the local population of an imminent catastrophe.

In March, the government said in its new estimate that if an earthquake 9 occurs in size along the pelvis, up to about 298,000 people will die and that the economic loss in the country will reach 292 trillion yen.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/09/27/japan/japan-nankai-trough-megaquake-probability/

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