A study finds that US West Coast faults could trigger cascading catastrophic earthquakes West Coast

Warnings about the impending threat of a “superquake” — a catastrophic quake that could destroy cities — have stoked fears across the West Coast of the United States for decades. But according to a new study, an extremely powerful earthquake in the Pacific Northwest could trigger a secondary earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, causing a disaster like no other.

The “largest” one would have the potential to wreak havoc up and down the coast simultaneously, researchers say.

Lead author Dr. Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist and geophysicist, said: “We would expect that an earthquake on one fault alone would exhaust the entire country's resources to respond to it.” “If they both exploded together, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle and Vancouver would all likely be in a state of emergency in a compressed time frame.”

The Cascadia Subduction Zone, which can produce magnitude 9 earthquakes on its own, has caused tremors on the San Andreas Fault in the past, according to the study published on September 29.

Goldfinger said the results came after decades of confusion and a lot of data that was difficult to interpret.

By drilling into the core of deep-sea sediments containing thousands of years of geological history, researchers combed through layers left behind by ancient earthquakes. They thought the undersea landslide deposits were from the San Andreas quakes, “but they were upside down from what we normally see,” Goldfinger said.

“We realized it wasn't one deposit, it was two deposits,” he added.

These patterns, studied for decades by generations of graduate students, led to a lightbulb moment around 2017 when scientists realized they were evidence of a coincidence between the Cascadia subduction zone and the San Andreas Fault.

By analyzing sand structures within turbidites, which are layers of sedimentary deposits, scientists were able to determine that some of the ruptures occurred only hours – or sometimes even minutes – apart. There is evidence, according to the study, that 18 simultaneous earthquakes occurred during the past three thousand years.

Their findings indicate that these successive earthquakes are not the exception, but rather occur in the majority of cases.

The last event they discovered was related to the massive earthquake of 1700, which triggered a tsunami that swept across the Pacific Ocean. Artifacts show that the homes of the Cowichan people living on Vancouver Island were flattened during the 9.0-magnitude earthquake, which also caused landslides and severe subsidence, all of which were left in the geological record.

Researchers have now found that a second earthquake – up to a magnitude of 7.9 – may have affected Northern California shortly after the first.

Experts have long assumed that the defects could be linked, but this study provides the most evidence of the significant risks that may affect millions of people.

A magnitude 9 earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault could produce an initial tsunami wave up to 80 feet high that would hit coastal communities within 30 minutes after shaking began, according to a scenario drawn by federal emergency managers in 2022. Their analysis found that the quake's impact would ripple across more than 140,000 square miles, affecting people in three states and parts of Canada, the next tsunami will reach 27 countries and 17 tribes

According to a similar type of analysis conducted on a 7.8-magnitude earthquake south of San Andreas, areas of California could shake for more than two minutes, causing more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damage, with “severe and long-lasting disruption.”

Large earthquakes occur on these faults approximately every 200 years, according to experts.

Together, these events will cause unprecedented devastation. But for Goldfinger, there is a silver lining: He said the Cascadia staging could serve as a natural early warning system that gives those who might be affected by the San Andreas quake more time to prepare.

Scientific advances, although they come with terrifying implications, also give researchers more insights into adapting and responding when disasters strike.

“Our level of preparedness is poor,” Goldfinger said. “We have a long way to go, and all these areas were built on time bombs.”

This work also keeps risks fresh in the minds of emergency managers and residents in places most at risk. While it is uncertain when the next big earthquake might occur, there is still time to prepare.

“Obtain earthquake insurance. Explore options for strengthening homes built to older standards,” Ben Deci, chief information officer for the California Earthquake Authority, said in an email response. “Know what to do when the shaking starts: drop, dive, and hold on.”

“Environmental risks are interconnected on many levels,” he added. “Understanding this can be an important first step towards inspiring people to participate in a resilient ecosystem.”

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