Wales on the brink of political earthquake – The Irish Times

Opinion polls suggest that Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru will battle it out with Britain's Reform Party to end a century of Labour's political dominance in Wales, in next May's Senedd election.

The chiseled representatives at its upbeat annual conference – held over the weekend at Swansea's Brangwyn Hall – seemed to be sending a message: Don't talk too much about independence; Stay focused on voters' daily lives and be the government in waiting.

However, more often than not, a feeling of dizziness arises among its regular members. And who can blame them? The Plaid is 100 years old, yet it is only now preparing for perhaps its finest hour: its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, is favored to be Prime Minister.

So, for dizziness. On Saturday morning, three Manoushe delegates noticed each other in line at the Hall Café. One carries a Welsh red dragon flag, another wears a Palestinian keffiyeh, while the youngest wears a black and white flag of Cornwall.

While they wait for their coffee, the Red Dragon Bearer starts singing a fun song about how “20,000 Cornish men will know why!”. It is the song of the Western men, the famous Cornish anthem. Others join in to entertain their Celtic nationalist relatives.

Hours later, they were all taking part in a conference-ending rendition of the Welsh anthem, Land of My Fathers, which would have nearly taken the roof off the Brangwyn Hall. Seismographs tremble. Wales is on the brink of a political earthquake that some believe could oust UK Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer from office.

There is an early push this month in the by-election in Caerphilly where Plaid and Nigel Farage's Reform Party will battle it out for a seat in the always strong Labour-strong Valleys region. Veterans admit reform may have the advantage if turnout is high, but Welsh party activists old and young are enthusiastic and hopeful.

“This moment is a test of the Wales we want to see in the future,” says Delyth Jewell, the party's deputy leader. Member for the Senedd, Caerphilly is her home town. “Plaid Cymru versus the Reformation – I can’t imagine two very different visions for our nation.”

Whatever the outcome in Caerphilly, Jewell says: “something is changing” in Welsh politics. “There is a real feeling that the situation is turning in our favor,” she says.

Opinion polls suggest she may be right, but with seven months to go until the election, the outcome next May is far from certain. Manousha, for example, lags far behind other parties when it comes to fundraising. The only thing that seems certain is that Labour's dominance is over.

An opinion poll conducted by YouGov in recent weeks showed that Plaid received 30 percent of the vote, ahead of the Reform Party, which received 29 percent, and the Labor Party, which received 14 percent.

Based on these figures, Plaid is likely to lead the next Welsh government if this is repeated in the May election. It may need Labor's dwindling help in managing and passing the budget.

However, there is also uncertainty as Wales switches to a new electoral system. To date, the party has elected sixty members of the Sinéd (MS), by a two-thirds majority in the constituencies, with the remainder selected under a regional list system using the Dhondt method – a complex calculation of average party proportions.

In May, the number of senators will rise to 96 – six each for 16 large districts (each district is roughly the equivalent of two Westminster constituencies combined). All seats will be allocated from party lists via D'Hondt. Voters will no longer choose candidates, but only parties.

“This is new to everyone,” says Liz Saville Roberts, a senior party member who leads the four Plaid MPs in Westminster. “There is no familiar sense of how things will work. But we believe it gives us the ability to win at least one seat in 15 out of 16 districts.”

It has traditionally been strongly inscribed in the Welsh-speaking areas of the west and parts of north Wales. To win power, reform must grow in the towns and old working-class Labor heartlands in the former coal-mining valleys of south Wales, where reform also looms.

“The weight of responsibility is exciting,” says Hild Vichan, a South Wales Central Masters student educated at Trinity College Dublin. “We're a century old — and that's been a long time coming. We've been working on our manifesto for three years. Government is our focus. This could be our chance and we can't screw it up.”

The attendance at Plaid's Swansea conference is small compared to other major party parties, but expectations are high as the dawning realization of what might be about to happen. One attendee who has attended several Plaid conferences comments on the number of nonpartisan observers — i.e., lobbyists — who have registered to attend this year.

Most debates take place in the main hall or on the sidelines between English and Welsh – translation tools are available at the door. Many of the exhibitors are charities or NGOs, but there are also a few energy company employees wandering the halls.

In his leader's speech, Iorwerth unveiled a pioneering policy of giving up to 30 hours of free childcare to all children from nine months to four years of age, representing a massive upgrade to the current system. Party strategists suggest the plan would cost an extra £100m (€115m) each year over five years – £500m a year by the end.

This would eat up a lot of financial maneuvering room in Wales. Iorwerth loyalists in the chamber love the new policy. Unashamedly plaid as a leftist uniform. However, he is also choosing to de-emphasize the Welsh independence debate ahead of the May election, while courting Labor voters, many of whom may be unionists.

Outside the room, conference attendees talk about Erwerth's speech afterward. Roger Jones from Swansea distributes free copies of the communist Morning Star newspaper. He says he has always been a Labor voter – “except under Blair” – but has voted for Plaid in the past and may do so again in May.

“The valleys are desolate,” says Jones, whose late father was from Trenor in Dublin. “The decent people in those areas have lost all hope. That's why we have the Rise of Reform. What the Blade has to do is win over the Welsh working class.”

Mary Mitchell, from Breshva, a village in a woodland area in Carmarthenshire in the south, distributes leaflets with fellow activist Havard Hughes. They oppose onshore wind farms, which they say spoil the region. Mitchell says she has “always” voted for Plaid, but points out that the Reform Party has promised to stop wind farms.

However, Mitchell is nervous about Farage's right-wing party: “I think I would probably still vote for Plaid because the alternative is scary.” Hughes believes Reform could take half the seats in their district.

Jewell, who is certain to be a senior Welsh minister if the party ends up in government, says Plaid would “never be in favor” of cooperating with the Reform Party, but would be willing to work with other parties, although she says it could be difficult with the Welsh Conservatives.

“The new order will require us to find a way to work together for the common good. We have no idea what that might look like.”

Whatever happens in Wales in May, it will be a change. Plaid plans to be at the heart of it.

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