Only an earthquake could deny Katherine Connolly a win, based on this poll – The Irish Times

Presidential elections have witnessed dramatic late fluctuations before. But it will take an earthquake now for Catherine Connolly to be denied victory in next week's vote, an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll conducted on Thursday suggests.

Thursday's poll is the first of the campaign to be fully sampled following the dramatic departure of Fianna Fail candidate Jim Gavin from the race.

It is clear from these numbers that Gavin's exit from the campaign – although of course he remains on the ballot – did not achieve the desired results for Heather Humphreys at all as she had hoped.

[ Catherine Connolly holds commanding lead in presidential election raceOpens in new window ]

In fact, reducing the campaign to a two-horse race has been somewhat better for Connolly, who now stands on the threshold of a stunning victory that would have been unimaginable when she entered the campaign, the first in the field, as an independent in July.

In 2011, with a 12-point lead last week, businessman Sean Gallagher saw Michael D Higgins wrest the presidency from him in final days after false claims in an RTÉ television debate for which the station later apologized and paid damages.

Poll: Katherine Connolly leads by a large margin

[ A short history of the Irish presidency: Some worried de Valera was enabling dictatorshipOpens in new window ]

Had the RTÉ program not been broadcast, or been managed better, or if Gallagher had dealt differently with questions about Fianna Fáil fundraising, he might now be finishing his second term in Áras an Uachtaráin.

Forewarned by Gallagher's fate, Connolly will now be the cautious candidate, taking no risks and seeking only to keep her campaign on an even keel.

By contrast, Humphries needs something to shake up and change dramatically – she can now throw caution to the wind and is likely to become more pointed in questions directed at her opponent.

This is the first and only Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll conducted for the campaign. There have been other cases in recent weeks, all of which showed Connolly making a significant lead – but not as large as Thursday's lead.

Source: Ipsos P&A

The hope of the Humphreys campaign was that Gavin's withdrawal would bring their candidate within striking distance of Connolly and that the natural tightening of the race and differential turnout rates could push them forward.

Instead, the gap widened. It's 18 points on Thursday, with only about a week to go.

Even by the standards of a presidential election, something extraordinary would have to happen to reverse this progress. If these numbers – or anything like them – are repeated on Election Day, Connolly will win the first count.

Take away the people who don't know, and those who won't vote, and Connolly gets 60 percent of the spoiler vote.

Connolly's campaign has received widespread support, but unsurprisingly, it is particularly popular among young voters. Among people under 34 (excluding undecideds, nonvoters, and spoilers), it's in the mid-70s. It's hard to lose with those kind of numbers.

Perhaps the only concern for Connolly is the issue of turnout. Older voters are more reliable voters, and although younger voters reported strong intentions in Thursday's poll to turn out and vote for Connolly, the record suggests their turnout rates are lower. Additionally, conventional wisdom says the race should tighten as polling day approaches.

But there is no sign of that on Thursday – quite the opposite, in fact – and the boost in Connolly's momentum generated by these numbers could see the gap widening rather than in the other direction. Humphries voters will not be encouraged.

Is there hope for the Fine Gael candidate?

If so, it depends on a few things: that the poll overstates Connolly's support; And that its supporters are eager to come out in larger numbers; The warnings about Connolly's left-wing, anti-American, anti-EU presidency are enough to scare centrist voters into voting for Humphreys.

All of these things individually are not implausible. But they are unlikely to happen all together, with enough intensity to reverse Connolly's lead. This is not impossible. But this is very unlikely.

As American journalist Damon Runyon said: “The race is not always in favor of the fast, nor is the battle in favor of the strong. But this is the way to bet.”

There is one more important thing to say about today's results. It clearly shows that a large segment of voters have been alienated from these elections. Nearly half of voters do not feel represented by either candidate. More than half (55 percent) want it to be easier to get into the race.

These questions don't just concern Maria Steen, but they loom large over her. 45% of participants, a large majority of those who expressed their preference, believe that her candidacy should have been facilitated. It certainly would have been a very different election if she had been on the ballot.

The first half of this campaign seemed to be about the people who weren't in it; Sometimes it seems like the second half is all about Katherine Connolly.

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