Seismic data could hold the key to predicting Mount Etna's next eruption, study finds

Mount Etna is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. It is located on the eastern coast of Sicily, and erupts several times a year, most recently in June of this year.

While it is possible to some extent to predict eruptions, a new study published in Science Advances proposes a new forecasting method that analyzes earthquake patterns. It can allow for earlier and better preparation.

How to predict volcanoes

Scientists are currently monitoring Mount Etna by looking at seismic, geological, geophysical and geochemical data, especially how magma moves in the upper crust. From this, they are able to tell if a volcano will erupt soon. When magma erupts on the surface, it turns into lava. But often, there is not much time between the alarm and the power outage.

This new study offers a different paradigm: looking at earthquake patterns and magma movements at a deeper level.

Earthquakes and volcanoes are often interconnected. Earthquakes occur along tectonic plate boundaries, and Mount Etna is located at the meeting point of the African and European tectonic plates. Small and large earthquakes affect the movement of volcanic magma, which may affect the eruption.

New way

The study, conducted by researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, analyzed two decades of seismic data from Mount Etna.

The researchers focused on the “b value,” which essentially evaluates the ratio of small to large earthquakes. They found a relationship between volcanic activity and the value of b: the ratio changes as magma rises through the crust. By plotting the 'b value' over time, they were able to identify some of the early signs of an eruption.

“Our results show that monitoring the b value over time provides a valuable opportunity to track magma movements from deep to shallow parts of the plumbing system and can be integrated into Etna's multi-parameter monitoring system to improve the assessment of impending eruptions,” the authors wrote.

Avoid disaster

Early and more accurate forecasting is critical for the communities surrounding Etna. According to NASA, nearly a third of Sicily's population lives along the slopes of the volcano. The June eruption saw ash plumes measuring 6.5 kilometers tall.

The authors believe that this new method is a way to avoid disasters, whether at Mount Etna or other similar volcanoes.

“The b value can be used as a prior for eruptions of other volcanoes where a sufficient number of earthquakes are available, ultimately leading to better volcanic risk management and public safety,” they wrote.

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