How climate change has increased the risk of earthquakes in East Africa

Structural setting of the study site. Credit: Scientific Reports (2025). doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-23264-9

Climate change is accelerating continental rifting, the geological process in which land masses slowly break apart. According to a new study published in the journal Scientific Reports, the East African Rift System (EARS) has become more tectonically active after its major lakes shrank due to a drier climate 4,000 to 6,000 years ago. This could have caused frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

The research team, led by scientists from the University of Auckland and Syracuse University, studied the Lake Turkana basin in northern Kenya. This region is ideal for analyzing how climate and tectonics interact because it lies within the magmatically active eastern part of EARS and has undergone massive lake-level metamorphisms.

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Scientists examined 27 underwater faults by comparing two time periods in the southern Turkana Basin. The first was the Late African Humid Period (9,631 to 5,333 years ago) and the second was the Post-African Humid Period (5,333 years ago to the present), when the climate was drier. Using geological data and computer models, they calculated how the reduced weight of the lake's water affected fault activity.

The researchers discovered that the fault speed at EARS accelerated significantly after major lakes in the region contracted, showing an average increase of 0.17 mm/year in their rate of slip. “We provide the first evidence of increased fault activity in response to climate-induced lake level changes in an East African rift system over timescales of 10³-10⁴ years, and reveal that tectonic-climatic interactions are enhanced in magmatically active fault systems.”

A conceptual illustration of a set of proposed processes that lead to increased rifting activity on the Lake Turkana Rift in response to changing climatic conditions associated with the transition from (a) the African Humid Period to (b) the African Post-Humid Period. Credit: Scientific Reports (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-23264-9 stress relief on the cortex.

The study authors propose a two-part mechanism for how declining lake water affects the accelerating forces of erosion. The direct effect was to remove weight from the Earth's crust. For example, when the level of Lake Turkana dropped by 100 to 150 metres, this reduced the stress on the faults, making them more vulnerable to slip. It's like a heavy bowling ball being taken out of the mattress, with the surface rising again.

The most important effect was that the decrease in the weight of the lake led to a decrease in pressure on the mantle (the layer below the crust). This caused more rock to melt, sending magma into a chamber at the bottom of the South Island volcano. The room grew like a powerful underground balloon, accelerating the movement of the rift. When scientists ran computer models, they found that magma pressure was the dominant force that accelerated the rifts.

This latest research is an important reminder of how climate change affects deep geological processes. These insights can inform infrastructure planning and risk management in areas near lakes, especially decisions regarding dams and other large water projects.

Written for you by our author Paul Arnold, edited by Gaby Clarke, fact-checked and reviewed by Robert Egan – this article is the result of careful human work. We depend on readers like you to keep independent science journalism alive. If this report is important to you, please consider making a donation (especially monthly). You'll get an ad-free account as a thank you.

More information: James D. Muirhead et al., Accelerated rifting in response to regional climate change in the East African Rift System, Scientific Reports (2025). doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-23264-9

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Citation: How climate change has increased earthquake risk in East Africa (2025, November 11) Retrieved November 11, 2025 from https://phys.org/news/2025-11-climate-earthquakes-east-africa.html

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