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How long could it last, and what are the risks of a major disaster?

How long could it last, and what are the risks of a major disaster?


Six earthquakes measuring 3.0 or higher hit the East Bay Sunday morning, part of dozens of small quakes that can last for hours or even days, according to seismology experts.

The largest quake to date was a 3.8-magnitude quake that struck the vicinity of San Ramon at 9:38 a.m., according to the USGS.

Residents of Danville, Dublin, Emeryville and San Ramon reported feeling tremors and a brief rattle.

Amelia Boaz was in the middle of a conversation in her grandmother's one-story Danville house when the pictures on the walls suddenly started shaking. Her dog rushed around the house. The quake lasted about five seconds, she said, and “it literally felt like the whole house just shook.”

Boaz, a San Ramon resident who was headed to work at Salt & Straw Sunday afternoon, said she is accustomed to earthquakes as a recurring feature of life in California.

“But I've never felt this intense before,” she said.

Seismologists say the San Ramon area sometimes experiences swarms of earthquakes. (Google Street View)

The swarm can last for hours or even days, according to state geologist Jeremy Lancaster, head of the California Geological Survey, and Harold Tobin, a University of Washington professor who directs the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network.

At least 25 earthquakes with a magnitude of less than 3.0 had occurred as part of the swarm by about 11 a.m. Sunday, in addition to larger quakes, Tobin said. Small earthquakes were still continuing on Monday morning, with a 2.6 magnitude earthquake recorded around 10 a.m.

The quakes occurred on the northern end of the Calaveras Fault, Tobin said, adding that it has the long-term potential to produce a magnitude 6.5 to 7.0 earthquake. The fault is a major branch of the San Andreas Fault System and extends about 90 miles from San Ramon to about 20 miles south of Hollister in San Benito County. Tobin said the San Andreas and Hayward faults pose a greater public danger.

Tobin said swarms of earthquakes sometimes occur in the area, citing a few swarms in the past decade. He said it is due to pressure in the area caused by the interconnection of several fault lines, and it may also be caused by the movement of fluids in the Earth's crust. There is a small chance of a larger earthquake occurring during the time frame of about a week, but Tobin stressed that this is not something to worry about.

This is fairly standard in seismology: After every small earthquake, scientists say there is a small chance of a larger one occurring within the next week.

A group of small earthquakes that struck the San Ramon area on Sunday could last for several days, seismic experts said. (Google Street View)

An earthquake struck while Edison and Vangie Mendoza were listening to the sermon during Mass at St. Isidore in Danville, sending a jolt through the pews — and even up to the altar.

“The priest declared this a jolt of joy,” Vanjie Mendoza said with a laugh.

Mendoza's family, originally from the Philippines, said they are aware of the earthquakes. They said this feeling is like a “bounce.” But by early afternoon, the couple wasn't too worried about aftershocks as they enjoyed a pleasant afternoon at a shaded garden table in San Ramon.

“This type of earthquake, I don't think it will have another aftershock. It's just a split second. We felt it, but it's not that strong,” Vanjie Mendoza said.

James Young was preparing for the day in the bathroom of his Dublin home when he felt a series of vibrations in quick succession. He said it seemed “more like a constant oscillation.”

“I was worried the gas lines were going to break or something,” he said. “It felt stronger than they said, to be honest.”

By midday, Young was having coffee outside at the City Center Bishop Ranch in San Ramon, where families were picnicking and children were running through a small fountain. But the morning earthquake was never far from his mind.

“Every time I feel small, I think: ‘Will this lead to me becoming big later?’” Young said. “It's a little unnerving to be on top of the fault line.”

From left: Dubliners Anant Agarwal, Gitanjali Gupta, Neha Agarwal and Pooja Dubey remember the morning jolts as they visited San Ramon Central Park. (Anna Bowman/San Francisco Chronicle)

A group of families gathered in Central Park in San Ramon Sunday afternoon expressed a range of emotions about the morning's quake. Anant Agarwal said his 7-year-old daughter started crying when the earthquake shook their home in Dublin. Another man said his family's Christmas tree shook and his youngest child crawled under the table. But Gitanjali Gupta said her children were excited by the shaking, which she said felt “fairly strong” due to the proximity of the epicenter.

“They were jumping,” Gupta said. “They asked, ‘Mom, did you feel it?’”

“California is earthquake country and there is always a very small possibility of a larger, potentially devastating earthquake,” Lancaster, of the California Geological Survey, noted via email. “If you feel an earthquake or receive an earthquake alert, get down to the ground, take cover under a sturdy object, and wait until all the shaking stops.”

The quake swarm comes after an active fallout in Berkeley, which was rocked in September and October by a few small earthquakes centered near the UCLA campus.

A 2.8 magnitude earthquake also struck Sunday morning near Paterson, located about 50 miles to the southeast in Stanislaus County.

This article was originally published in East Bay Earthquake Squadron: How long can it last, and what are the risks of a major earthquake?

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