Seismic Shift – Part 2: Oregon scientists lead efforts to prepare for Cascadia earthquake and tsunami

CORVALLIS, Ore. (KTVZ) – Oregon scientists are leading the world in tsunami research, helping communities better understand and prepare for one of the most destructive natural forces on Earth.

“It's been more than 300 years since the last major earthquake shook the region,” said KTVZ meteorologist Shannon Brady. Although there is no way to correctly time the next quake, the clock is ticking, and Oregon is in the line of fire.

“Although most people have heard of the San Andreas Fault, the fault closest to Oregon could be the epicenter of the next big earthquake. It's called the Cascadia Subduction Zone,” said John Carroll, KTVZ's chief meteorologist.

“The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a fault line located approximately 100 miles offshore of the Pacific Coast. If a large earthquake occurs along the fault line, coastal areas will be the most affected,” Brady explained.

“There is a little-known byproduct of vibration called liquefaction,” Carroll added. “It can cause catastrophic damage.”

“Liquefaction happens that way,” Brady said. “A large earthquake occurs on the ocean floor instantly because of the intense shaking along the loose, sandy shoreline, and how deeply saturated the ground becomes, the surface will lose strength and sink. This could cause structures, trees, and anything else above the shoreline to sink up to six feet.”

“And if that wasn't bad enough,” Carroll said, “well, the tsunami started off the coast.” “Now, what happens with that is that outside we see a series of waves forming and pulling the water away from the coast. This is called sloshing. Now, the next stage of this is immersion, where the waves get bigger and bigger as they get closer to the coast. The energy is pushed inland and the waves crash onto the shore.”

“A devastating tsunami could occur within 10 to 15 minutes after the initial tremors. Coastlines will be swept away by a powerful wave of devastation,” Brady continued.

“But the first wave is not always the last or the strongest,” Carroll added. “Multiple waves are likely to hit the coast, the largest of which could reach a height of 100 feet. Water coming ashore will flow inland. This graph shows the water being pushed inland.”

“Fortunately, Oregon has cliffs and mountains near the coast that would slow the water's eastward advance. But the damage to the immediate coast would be incredible,” Brady said.

“The combination of the liquefaction process, the weakening of any structural foundations, and the rushing inland of water, the damage from such a major disaster would be catastrophic,” Carroll concluded.

“Large parts of the coast, including bridges, homes, power plants and sewage plants, will be devastated over the coming days, weeks and even months,” Brady said.

Tsunami study in Oregon

At Oregon State University's Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory in Corvallis, tsunamis are not just a theory, they are a force that must be understood. Using live model testing, the researchers simulated the behavior of real tsunami waves.

“We study different aspects of tsunamis, in terms of how the tsunami is generated, how it propagates, as well as how it interacts with coastal structures,” said Pedro Lomonaco, director of the Wave Research Laboratory at Oregon State. “If we know how a tsunami arrives, we can translate that into the fastest ways or the safest ways for people or resources to evacuate the coast.”

It is a complex science with a simple goal: to save lives and livelihoods.

“When you have an improvement in the resilience of a community, that impacts the economy and the lives, the quality of life of the rest of the population, whether they are exposed to that risk or not,” Lomonaco said.

Turning science into action also means bridging the gap between research and real-world awareness.

“We're trying to do something called community science, which is basically understanding how they understand risk, how, and what their thoughts are about tsunami risk,” said Eric Velasco, a postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State University. “Our work is not just scientific or technical, but it also applies to local communities. So, we do it through meetings with them. It will happen at some point, maybe tomorrow, maybe in 30 years, maybe in a hundred years, maybe in 400 years. We don't know and no one knows yet. So the best thing we can do is prepare. It's important not to be afraid. No, but to be prepared.”

What science shows

Geological data indicate that these mega-events typically occur between every 100 and 1,100 years. The last major earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone in 1700—more than 300 years ago.

“There has already been a tremendous amount of research done in the last five years on Cascadia, both looking to improve our understanding of the frequency and scale of these events,” said Jonathan Allan, a coastal geomorphologist with Oregon's Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.

“So, during the actual earthquake itself, we can expect the coastline to subside, almost along the entire Oregon coast,” Alan said. “And then we had the tsunami itself that would eventually reach the coast, and start inundating low-lying areas, coastal communities, etc. And of course, the tsunami itself would actually cause catastrophic destruction of everything in its path. You know, this whole landscape here would be completely stripped away, which is what we're seeing here now.”

The destruction could isolate entire towns for months. With widespread landslides and the expected closure of Highway 101, preparing coastal residents is a top priority.

“The geology here doesn't fit any kind of timeline. But this could happen tomorrow. This could be in 50 years. But we know it's coming. So we have to prepare. And we're preparing as it could happen tomorrow,” said Dan Norton, of Lincoln County Public Health's Emergency Preparedness and Response Team. “Sometimes people can't comprehend it, and they choose to just do it. Well, it's too big to handle. We're not going to do anything at all. Some preparation is always better than no preparation.”

Planning for the future

Local and state agencies work to ensure coastal communities are prepared when disasters strike.

“Yes,” said Meg Reed, a coastal policy specialist with the Oregon Department of Conservation and Development. “Our agency is really focused on the long-term land use planning aspect. “So, we're kind of thinking about how we prepare our communities today for this event, so that they're more resilient when it arrives. Then they can recover and recover much faster. I think it's the most studied fault line in the world. “So we have a lot of information now, but we're still moving that information from scientists to regulations, to communities in everyday life.”

According to the Oregon Resilience Plan, coastal residents may be without critical amenities for months or even years:

Energy: 3 to 6 months Drinking water and sanitation: 1 to 3 years Evacuation routes: 6 to 12 months Health care facilities: Up to 3 years

“They expect it will take years, probably, to get things back up and running,” Norton said. “Given the challenging nature, it will be like camping on the Oregon coast for a while.”

Interior communities, including central Oregon, are expected to become vital refuge areas for displaced people after the Cascadia event.

While the coast braces for impact, central Oregon prepares to receive evacuees — because when the ground moves, we're all connected.

This November, KTVZ News presents Seismic Shift, a special four-part series exploring how Central Oregon will connect to and prepare for the next major tsunami event along the Oregon coast.

November 6: Lee Anderson sets the stage, explaining the science behind a potential tsunami and why experts say it's a matter of when, not if.

November 13: Claire Elmer takes us to the coast to show how communities and researchers are preparing for the inevitable.

November 20: Spencer Sacks investigates what happens next – how mass evacuation and infrastructure challenges will impact Central Oregon.

November 25: Jillian Fortner highlighted Deschutes County's efforts to prepare as a sanctuary, including new emergency operations and response planning.

Join us in November on KTVZ News platforms as we find out how our region is preparing to play a critical role in surviving the tsunami.

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