The jewelry boom is facing an earthquake in the fashion world

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Richemont's latest figures have shaken up the luxury sector. The Swiss group said jewelry sales rose 17% in the second fiscal quarter excluding currency movements, beating even the most optimistic forecasts and reinforcing why high-end pieces have become one of the few reliable bright spots. With gold prices rising nearly 60% over the past year and some handbag prices doubling over the past five years, consumers have gravitated toward items that can be worn repeatedly and may hold value. This dynamism has lifted names across the category from Cartier by Richemont to Van Cleef & Arpels and Tiffany by LVMH (LVMHF), while Watches of Switzerland in the US, where jewelry makes up about 19% of sales, saw a 20% gain in the first half of the financial year.

But investors are starting to think about what comes next. Now more than a dozen major fashion houses, including LVMH's Dior and Kering's Gucci, have new creative leadership, and their new products will start arriving in stores early next year. If shoppers shift toward bolder clothing and accessories, jewelry's current advantage could be weakened. At the same time, pricing tailwinds are turning into cost pressures. Higher gold prices, tighter currency conditions and U.S. tariffs are fueling retail marks: Analysts estimate Cartier raised prices by mid- to high-single digits this year, Tiffany raised U.S. prices by 5% in October, and Bulgari increased most U.S. items by 6%, according to Citigroup analysts. If fashion brands can get more attractive handbags at a better price, the value advantage of jewelry may start to decline.

China adds another variable. Analysts at TD Cowen say Cartier continues to gain strength there, yet local rival Laopu Gold known for heritage-driven designs has outperformed Richemont stock this year, suggesting a market in which local preferences are evolving. However, major global jewelers still have room to manoeuvre. By updating their signature lines rather than pushing outdated designs at higher prices, companies can maintain relevance while managing inflation. Cartier's new flexible Love bracelet is sold online at Selfridges and Van Cleef's Alhambra multi-wear pieces, demonstrating how creative reinvention can support pricing power. RBC Capital Markets expects jewelry and soft luxury to expand at similar rates over the next two years, meaning the next phase of the luxury cycle may reward brands that balance innovation with discipline. For now, the glamor remains intact, but the looming return of fashion may be the plot investors are watching most closely.

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