Scientists reveal the reason behind the “Santorini earthquake swarm”

Scientists have discovered that the 'swarm' of tens of thousands of earthquakes that occurred near the Greek island of Santorini earlier this year was caused by molten rock being pumped through an underground conduit over a three-month period.

They used physics and artificial intelligence to determine the exact cause of more than 25,000 earthquakes, which traveled about 20 kilometers (12 miles) horizontally through the Earth's crust.

They used each tremor as virtual sensors, then used artificial intelligence to analyze the associated patterns.

One of the lead researchers, Dr Stephen Hicks from the University of California, said combining physics and machine learning in this way could help predict volcanic eruptions.

Seismic activity began stirring beneath the Greek islands of Santorini, Amorgos, and Anafi in January 2025. The islands have seen tens of thousands of earthquakes – many of which were magnitude greater than 5.0 and could be felt.

Many tourists fled, and locals feared that the nearby underwater Colombo volcano was about to erupt – or that it was a seismic precursor to a larger quake, such as the devastating 7.7-magnitude quake that struck the same area in 1956.

The scientists, who published their findings in the journal Science, created a 3D map of the land around Santorini. They then mapped the evolving patterns of each tremor's seismic activity, movement and pressure in the Earth's crust. This led to a detailed model of what exactly led to this seismic swarm that persisted for several months.

The team found that this event was driven by the horizontal movement of magma – from the bottom of Santorini and the Colombo volcano – through a 30-kilometre-long channel located more than 10 kilometers below the seafloor between the islands of Santorini and Anidros.

The researchers estimated that the volume of magma that moved through the crust could fill 200,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools. These “magma intrusions,” as they are known, crashed through layers of rock, triggering thousands of earthquakes.

“The tremors act as if we have instruments deep in the ground, and they are telling us something,” explained the study's lead author, Anthony Lomax, a research geophysicist who develops scientific software to analyze seismic activity.

“[When we analyse] “The pattern that these earthquakes make in our 3D model of the Earth matches very well what we would expect from magma moving horizontally.”

Researchers say the matter is over for now.

“The magma remained very deep – more than 8 kilometers deep – in the Earth’s crust,” Dr Hicks explained. “We know that magma can rise and erupt to the surface within hours to days, but because the activity has now stopped, we can be almost certain that the molten material eventually gets stuck and cools deep in the Earth's crust.”

However, volcanoes can enter long phases of unrest and unpredictability, which can last for many years. Recent volcanic activity in southwest Iceland has proven this.

These researchers say that using artificial intelligence, combined with the basic physics of how the Earth's crust moves and responds to stresses, could transform the ability to monitor, understand and even predict volcanic activity. This could help keep people safe in seismically active areas of the world.

“Ultimately, this could be used as a prediction tool,” Dr. Hicks explained. Whenever we see a cluster of earthquakes, “that's the data we can use to figure out the most likely cause.”

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