The giant Campi Flegrei volcano erupts in Italy. Could it erupt? : NPR

An aerial view of the densely populated area of ​​Pozzuoli, which lies within the Campi Flegrei volcanic zone. More than half a million people live in this area, which is constantly monitored due to ongoing volcanic activity. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

Pozzuoli, Italy – In Greek and Roman mythology, the Campi Flegrei volcano was depicted as the entrance to the underworld.

Its prehistoric eruptions blotted out the sun, turned summer into winter and covered Europe and Russia in thick volcanic ash. Now this powerful seismic giant is moving near Naples again, shaking the ground in a way scientists say hasn't happened in centuries.

“Two of the recent earthquakes are the strongest we have ever seen,” said Giovanni Macedonio, director of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Naples. The earthquakes that occurred in March and June of this year due to Hurricane Campi Flegrei forced people “to evacuate, and there are dozens of families who cannot return to their homes due to the damage.”

Giovanni Macedonio (right) is director of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Naples. He supervises the area and monitors seismic activity from the observatory. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

For everyone to survive the eruption, more than half a million people must be evacuated from the area designated by Italian authorities as the “red zone” around the eight-mile-wide Campi Flegrei crater. Here, Macedonio says, “there are really no countermeasures to protect yourself” from the lava flow of volcanic particles and ash — which superheats to about 1,472 degrees Fahrenheit — that would cover the terrain at 30 to 60 miles per hour.

Campi Flegrei is considered a “national threat” because of the “explosive” pattern of its eruptions, which scientists believe could create an eruption plume – a type of cloud of dust and ash – that could rise about 18 miles into the sky and spread with the wind. When this column of dust and ash eventually falls, its weight can cause rooftops to collapse.

At the observatory that Macedonio supervises in Naples, a large red telephone communicates directly with the Civil Protection headquarters in Rome. The line is tested twice a day.

A red telephone at the seismic observatory in Naples communicates directly with the Civil Protection headquarters in Rome. The line is tested twice a day. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

Vesuvius – the most famous volcano in this region, whose lava flow froze in time the ancient Roman city of Pompeii – rises to the east of Naples. Hans Christian Andersen, after witnessing an eruption in 1834, described the lava as “enormous shooting stars.”

But the truth is that it is the Campi Phlegrei fields, or phlegraine fields (from the Greek phlegraios meaning “fiery”), which lie underground, which are the least visible, and which have the potential to be devastating. That's because today hundreds of thousands of people live on top of this volcano, in the eight-mile-wide crater left by previous eruptions.

Solvatara Crater with Mount Vesuvius in the background. The Solvatara crater in Pozzuoli and Mount Vesuvius are part of the Campanian volcanic system, although they belong to different types of volcanic structures. Solvatara is part of the Campi Flegrei caldera, known for uplifting the earth, seismic activity and degassing, while Vesuvius is a classic cone volcano, famous for its catastrophic eruption that destroyed Pompeii. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

“We all know that we live in quite a seismic zone,” said Naples resident Maddalena Desario, whose neighborhood is on the edge of the Campi Flegrei caldera.

In the ancient city of Pozzuoli, located in a caldera, tourists follow a guide through narrow, winding alleys. From the top of the hill, they look out over a curving bay – the sea sparkling in the sun under a dense blue sky, and the island of Capri, the playground of the rich, in the distance.

But this immense beauty belies the danger here. During the largest volcanic eruption, about 39,000 years ago, Campi Flegrei released 72 cubic miles of molten rock, according to Macedonio of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology. Global temperatures dropped, and volcanic ash covered all of what is now Europe, as well as parts of Russia. Some scientists have suggested that the eruption may have contributed to the eventual disappearance of Neanderthals.

Visitors on a guided tour of Pozzuoli's historic Rione Terra neighborhood overlooking the sea. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

Experts say that today's eruption will not occur on this scale. However, it could be large enough to wreak havoc on the lives of millions and halt air travel across Europe, and perhaps even further around the world. So Macedonio and his team monitor every rumble and vibration.

At the observatory in Naples, screens on each wall show the seismic activity of all the volcanoes in the area. On the day NPR visited in September, a loud alarm blared across the room, signaling that an earthquake had been detected. Scientists moved quickly to assess the location and strength of the tremor and send information to Italian public safety authorities.

That was in Campi Flegrei. This is not unusual. Last year, scientists recorded about 2,500 earthquakes caused by this volcano in one month. Now the tremors are getting stronger: June saw an unprecedented 4.6-magnitude earthquake, enough to crack walls and send people fleeing their homes.

These earthquakes are associated with predisposition – a phenomenon in which the ground swells, slowly rising under people's feet. In the old port of Pozzuoli, boats now stand in the tall grass, stranded on new land rising from the sea. Ancient Roman columns have fossils of molluscs halfway through, showing how they were once underwater.

The columns of the Temple of Serapis at Pozzuoli contain fossils of mollusks halfway through, indicating that they were once underwater. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

It's as if this giant volcano was breathing, the ground rising and falling over decades, with every breath. Before another major eruption about 15,000 years ago, scientists say the ground rose about 85 feet. Now it is rising steadily again — rising 4.6 feet since 2005, and its inflation rate is growing even faster.

“The one thing you'll learn very soon is that we don't have control. Nature is in control,” said Warner Marzocchi, Federico II professor of geophysics and natural hazards at the University of Naples. “This type of volcanic system is accustomed to having phases of disturbances like the ones we observe. The biggest scientific challenge is to understand what causes these disturbances.”

To address this challenge, Marzocchi and his team — along with Stanford University and the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology — are using artificial intelligence to construct what they and other experts say is the most accurate image yet. The model identifies thousands of earthquakes that were previously undetectable with current technology. The research expanded the total number of earthquakes recorded by monitoring stations in the past three years from about 12,000 to more than 54,000 in the Campi Flegrei area alone.

These developments are helping scientists make more accurate guesses about the likely size of future earthquakes and learn more about why Campi Flegrei has shown increased activity since 2005. Marzocchi says the data suggests that the tremors, for now, are the result of gases pushing superheated water up through the Earth, not magma rising. Scientists hope this means an eruption is not necessarily imminent. But they can't know that for sure.

Marzocchi says the risk of a volcanic eruption is still “not zero” and therefore it is necessary to remain vigilant.

In Pozzuoli, in September, visitors wandered through historic buildings open to the public for a contemporary art exhibition. On a cobblestone street, local artist Pina Testa stood outside her studio. Her paintings include dozens of works showing volcanic eruptions—giant plumes of ash depicted in a bright array of colors.

Pina Testa is an artist who lives and works in Pozzuoli. Her works depict volcanoes, fire and the local natural environment. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

“Fire, and everything that is the movement of the earth, speaks to the spirit, and all of that shows up in my paintings,” Testa said, explaining the inspiration she finds in the volcano. “Sometimes when the ground shakes, I feel like it's falling under my studio,” she laughed — which she said has been undamaged so far.

She admitted to having some sort of affection for this murderous fellow. As a child, she remembers gatherings with neighbors in the street as they evacuated their homes during an earthquake, sometimes in the middle of the night. It was a time to chat, connect and even share a pizza.

In the 1970s and 1980s, tens of thousands of residents were moved from Rioni Terra, the historic area of ​​Pozzuoli, in forced evacuations by authorities, who believed that the sharp rise in the ground caused by the bradisi could be a sign of an impending eruption. The police and army forced people to leave their homes. They were moved to new apartments, and this oldest neighborhood in the city was permanently taken over by the state. Today, tourists wander the still-empty streets of this quaint hilltop area, whose beautiful and historic buildings remain mostly uninhabited.

However, throughout the area of ​​Pozzuoli and Campi Flegrei, entire communities remain. The volcano and its seismic activity have always been a part of it, Testa explained. She said that the real inhabitants of Pozzuoli live in harmony with the volcano. They can feel scared sometimes, but never terrified. And they don't leave.

In order for everyone to survive a volcanic eruption, more than half a million people must be evacuated from the area designated by Italian authorities as a “red zone” around the eight-mile-wide crater. Valerio Musella for NPR .

. Valerio Musella for NPR

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