Swarms of earthquakes continue to shake the Gulf region. What's going on here?

Dozens of small earthquakes have rocked the San Francisco Bay Area over the past month, unnerving and raising fears that more seismic events could be on the horizon.

The quake clusters — the latest of which struck on Monday — were all beneath the East Bay suburb of San Ramon, which is close to the Calaveras Fault.

There were at least 19 earthquakes of magnitude 2 or greater on Monday alone, the largest of which was a magnitude 3.6, striking at 9:07 a.m.

This quake was strong enough to unsettle customers in the checkout line at Safeway in Dublin, causing shoppers to shudder for a few seconds — just enough to look at each other in confusion and alarm before the rumbling stopped.

Before that, there were six quakes at 5 a.m., giving many across the region an annoying wake-up call.

“We're a little nervous,” one person wrote on Threads, adding that she plans to stock up on water and earthquake supplies.

“The San Ramon is basically today’s massage chair…but the stress kind,” another person wrote on the social media site. “Dear Earth: We get it, you're active. You can stop now.”

Seismic clusters began on November 9, when 13 earthquakes were detected, the largest with a magnitude of 3.8. Two more came the next day, plus one on November 15, November 17, November 18, and November 20.

As if Bay Area residents weren't already on edge, a 2.9 magnitude earthquake struck at 2:55 p.m. Monday with its epicenter in Oakland's Montclair neighborhood. This earthquake was close to the Hayward fault.

San Ramon, one of the largest cities in Contra Costa County, and the surrounding Tri-Valley area, are no stranger to earthquake swarms, according to Anne Marie Baltay, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

Seismic swarms occurred in 2002, 2003, and 2015 in the San Ramon area; And in 2018 around nearby Danville, with similar characteristics and sizes, Baltay said. However, none of those swarms served as a precursor to a large destructive earthquake on the Calaveras Fault, which has not occurred in the Triple Valley region in the modern historical record.

Past earthquake swarms in this region lasted for two days, but the longest was 42 days.

“It could be worrying for the people who live there,” Baltay said.

But overall, there is little predictive value about earthquake swarms.

Scientists say there is a 5% chance that any given earthquake will be followed by a larger one nearby within the next week.

For example, the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck the San Andreas Fault across central and southern California in 1857 was preceded an hour earlier by a 5.6 magnitude earthquake in Monterey County, and a 6.1 magnitude earthquake an hour earlier.

In the months and years leading up to the deadly 6.9-magnitude Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989, there were modest quakes — in the 5-magnitude range — that in hindsight were a harbinger of the quake that caused the partial collapse of the Bay Bridge and the collapse of a section of Interstate 880 in Oakland.

In this October 19, 1989, file photo, workers check damage to Interstate 880 in Oakland after it collapsed during the Loma Prieta earthquake.

(Paul Skouma/AP)

Most earthquake swarms do not result in large earthquakes.

One swarm that attracted significant attention occurred in 2016, with small earthquakes at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault. These events raised the possibility of a larger earthquake in Southern California, although it ultimately did not happen.

Scientists suspect that the Calaveras fault is capable of causing an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or larger. The fault extends from around the unincorporated community of Alamo in southeastern Contra Costa County along Interstate 680 through the areas around Danville, Dublin and Pleasanton.

After meeting the Hayward Fault in Santa Clara County, the Calaveras Fault continues southeast, passing through Gilroy, before meeting the San Andreas Fault in San Benito County.

The most recent major earthquake on the Calaveras Fault occurred in 1984, the 6.2 magnitude Morgan Hill earthquake, which injured at least 21 people and caused millions of dollars in damage. Before that, in 1911, an earthquake — estimated at 6.5 magnitude — struck a nearby section of the fault.

A modest 5.1 magnitude earthquake occurred on the Calaveras Fault east of San Jose in 2022.

Scientists believe it's likely that the San Andreas Fault earthquake that started in San Benito County — in the area around Hollister — will continue to rupture northwest of the Calaveras Fault, and then possibly continue up the Calaveras Fault or Hayward Fault. However, whether such a scenario is particularly likely is still being studied.

The USGS estimates that there is a 72% chance that an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater will occur in the Gulf region by 2043.

One of the faults that scientists are most interested in is the Hayward Fault, which runs through Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland, Fremont, and San Jose. Scientists estimate that a hypothetical magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault could kill at least 800 people and injure 18,000, with as many as 2,500 people needing to be rescued from collapsed buildings and 22,000 from stuck elevators.

The last major earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred in 1868, which was estimated to have a magnitude between 6.8 and 7.0. It was one of the most devastating events in California history.

Experts say small earthquakes are a good reminder to prepare for larger ones.

People can take steps such as securing objects that could fall and cause injury when shaken, such as attaching bookcases and mounting televisions to walls. Property owners can also consider whether their single-family home or apartment needs to be retrofitted.

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