Japan issues warning of possible strong earthquake after 7.5 magnitude quake How does it relate to SoCal?

Japan issued a strong earthquake warning on Tuesday after a 7.5-magnitude earthquake struck off the eastern coast of Aomori, the northernmost island of Japan's main island of Honshu, and south of the northern island of Hokkaido. Damage from this earthquake was modest – 34 mostly light injuries and some damage to roads and buildings.

Officials said the warning is not a prediction and that the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 8 or larger is only about 1%. But there is hope that this warning will be a wake-up call from an earthquake that could bring about the devastation left by the 2011 disaster that killed nearly 20,000 people and destroyed a nuclear plant.

There is said to be an increased risk of a subsequent earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater within the next week. Officials are urging residents, especially along coastal areas, to be well prepared so they can carry an emergency kit and run as quickly as possible in the event of a larger earthquake.

This advice seemed sober compared to other advice last year. The southern half of Japan's Pacific coast received a warning of a massive earthquake in the summer of 2024, but the ambiguity of that warning has led to panic buying of emergency food, cancellation of events and business closures.

Warning of a strong earthquake on the northeastern coast of Japan

The Japan Meteorological Agency said Monday's strong earthquake temporarily increased potential risks in the Hokkaido and Sanriku coast regions. This is where the Pacific plate below Japan forms two trenches – the Japan Trench and the Chishima Trench – which have caused many large earthquakes in the past.

Experts say the deadly 2011 earthquake and tsunami was caused by movement linked to the Japan Trench. It extends from the eastern coast of Chiba to Aomori, and the Chishima Trench extends from the eastern coast of Hokkaido to the Northern Islands and the Kuril Islands.

Explaining the warning, the JMA said the 9.0-magnitude earthquake on March 11, 2011, which devastated large swaths of Japan's northern coast, occurred two days after a 7.3-magnitude quake struck in the Japan Trench off the eastern coast of Iwate Island, one of the areas hardest hit in that disaster as well as in Monday's quake.

The 2011 earthquake triggered a tsunami that struck northern coastal cities in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures. The tsunami, which reached 15 meters (50 feet) in height in some areas, struck and destroyed the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This created profound fears of radiation that persist to this day.

Huge earthquake could cause 98-foot tsunami and kill nearly 200,000 people

Another massive earthquake in the Hokkaido-Sanriku region could trigger a tsunami up to 30 meters (98 feet) high in the region, killing up to 199,000 people, destroying up to 220,000 homes and buildings, and causing economic damage estimated at up to 31 trillion yen ($198 billion), according to a government estimate. It says up to 42,000 people may suffer from hypothermia in the winter.

The areas covered by the advisory extend across 182 municipalities from Hokkaido to Chiba Prefecture.

Japan's separate warning was first activated last August after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake occurred off the east coast of Miyazaki.

In a 2013 damage estimate for the potential massive Nankai earthquake, the government said a 9.1-magnitude quake could generate a tsunami exceeding 10 meters (33 feet) within minutes, killing up to 323,000 people, destroying more than 2 million buildings and causing economic damage exceeding 200 trillion yen ($1.28 trillion) in the region.

How is it related to Southern California?

Dr. Lucy Jones says the potential for a massive earthquake is very similar to what Southern California experienced in July 2019.

The Ridgecrest area experienced a 6.4-magnitude earthquake, followed by a larger 7.1-magnitude quake, making the first quake a foreshock.

“The score was 6.4 and we said, 'There's a 5% chance there's going to be something bigger in the next few days,' and we got a 7.1.” “That was a one in 20 chance it actually happened,” Dr. Jones said.

Dr. Jones says the same thing could happen in Japan – and because the consequences are significant – the public statement has been issued.

“Your chance of getting something larger is determined by the size of the first earthquake, 5% to 10% of the time it happens at all its strength,” Dr. Jones said. “Now when the initial magnitude is 7.6, there is a 5% to 10% chance of something larger than that becoming an earthquake of significant significance.”

Officials call on people to remain calm and prepare

Officials stress that the latest advisory does not include a prediction of any strong earthquake at any specific time or place, Tsukasa Morikubo, a Cabinet official for disaster prevention, said at a news conference early Tuesday. He called on residents to be cautious and prepared while continuing their daily activities and work.

Officials are urging people to keep an emergency kit containing a few days' worth of daily necessities along with shoes and helmets. Area residents are also advised to discuss evacuation procedures with family members and sleep in day clothes, not pajamas, so they can escape immediately. Furniture should also be fixed to the floor or wall.

Designated municipalities have explained the advice on their websites and begun checking stocks of relief goods and equipment to be used in evacuation centres.

The city of Iwaki in Fukushima urged residents to sign up for emergency emails, while officials in the town of Oarai in Ibaraki Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, checked radio communications equipment.

The first advisory report on the major earthquake in Japan in August last year contained a lot of scientific jargon. This caused concern and confusion to many across the country. Some towns closed beaches and canceled annual events, disappointing many travelers during Buddhist holidays in Japan.

Many people postponed planned trips and rushed to stock up on rice, dried noodles, bottled water and portable toilets, leaving shelves empty in many supermarkets in western Japan and even Tokyo, which lies outside the risk zone.

Copyright © 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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