Japanese authorities: About 200,000 people may die in a large tsunami after a maximum-magnitude earthquake

TOKYO – The Japanese government estimates that up to 199,000 people could die as a result of a major tsunami following the earthquake that struck the Japan and Chishima trenches.

According to the country's Central Disaster Management Council, tsunami waves of maximum magnitude have occurred along the trenches at intervals of 300 to 400 years.

It is believed that the most recent was in the seventeenth century. Experts believe that a maximum-magnitude earthquake and tsunami are imminent.

The council's 2021 damage forecast for a magnitude 9 earthquake estimated that tsunami waves surging along the Pacific coast from Hokkaido to Chiba on a winter night — when heavy snow could hamper evacuations — would result in 199,000 deaths from the Japan Trench earthquake and 100,000 from the Chishima Trench earthquake.

Even among those who successfully evacuate, an estimated 42,000 people face an increased risk of death from hypothermia after the Japan Trench earthquake and 22,000 after the Chishima Trench earthquake.

However, the council stated that the number of deaths could be reduced by 80 percent through improved tsunami evacuation awareness. The risk of hypothermia can be eliminated by preparing cold weather gear and heating equipment.

“We urge residents to prepare waterproof and cold-resistant outerwear, winter boots, gloves and other items so they can evacuate properly equipped,” said Professor Masahiro Nemoto, of the Japanese Red Cross Nursing College in Hokkaido, who specializes in disaster prevention in cold regions. Japan News Network/Asia News

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