Japan is under watch for huge earthquakes. What does this mean? : NPR

Japan learns what life is like watching huge earthquakes. NPR's Rob Schmitz talks with Richard Allen, director of the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory, about what that means.

Rob Schmitz, host:

It's been a worrying few days in Japan. A 7.5-magnitude earthquake off the country's coast on Monday put the country on a so-called mega-earthquake watch. Seismologists say there is a 1% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or higher occurring off shore this week. This of course is not likely. But if that happened, according to a Japanese government report, it would likely trigger a tsunami up to 98 feet high, putting the lives of 200,000 people in immediate danger. So how do we keep people informed without causing panic? Joining us now is Richard Allen, director of the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory in California. Hi Richard.

Richard Allen: Great to be with you.

SCHMITZ: So, Richard, what is a big earthquake?

ALLEN: These are really large earthquakes, in the case of Japan, in subduction zones. Although we can see magnitude 8 earthquakes on strike-slip faults here in California as well.

SCHMITZ: Richard, you just mentioned the subduction zone. For those of us who don't know what it is, tell us what it is.

Allen: Sure. So there is a subduction zone around the edges of some oceans, where there is an oceanic plate subducting beneath its neighboring continental plate or another oceanic plate. Because you have that vertical movement as the plate subducts, that's how you generate tsunami waves. In California, we think more about strike-slip faults. The San Andreas Fault is a strike-slip fault, where two plates move sideways next to each other, so you wouldn't expect a tsunami to occur on a strike-slip fault.

SCHMITZ: So how do officials balance letting people know what's going to happen and creating panic about it?

ALLEN: So it's important that we let the public know that, in the scientific community, and be very clear that, yes, there is a higher probability of a huge earthquake this week, but it's still a low probability. And so it's a great opportunity for people to think about, how are they going to react? Are they prepared to respond when a large earthquake and tsunami like this occurs? Because even if it doesn't happen this week, it will happen in the future, so everyone must be prepared.

Schmitz: What kind of protocol has Japan put in place to prepare the population for an earthquake like this?

ALLEN: Well, there are two sets of preparations that people need to make. It's about what institutions do, what government does, and then what we do as individuals? So, first of all, for institutions and government, what they put in place are warning systems. We have to give people the warning, and hit the go button so people can start taking action.

But the second part is, what do we do as individuals? We all have to be responsible for ourselves and the people around us. We all need to know what to do when we receive an earthquake warning or feel shaking. We must know that we need to land, cover and be consistent. In the case of a tsunami, of course, it's really important to get to higher ground. If you live in a coastal area, you need to know that you are in a tsunami danger zone, and you need to know how far you need to evacuate in order to get out of that danger.

SCHMITZ: Now, you're standing there in California. Obviously, California and the rest of the West Coast are also prone to earthquakes. I'm just curious, does the US have a system similar to Japan's regarding these massive earthquake warnings?

ALLEN: So what we have is we have aftershock warnings. So it is known in California, for example, that when you have an earthquake, there is a 1 in 20 chance that there will be a larger earthquake that follows. And so we have similar types of information systems. They were delivered by the US Geological Survey. If you go to the USGS's web pages after an earthquake, you'll see graphics explaining the likelihood of aftershocks, including the possibility of a more powerful earthquake as well.

SCHMITZ: That's Richard Allen, director of the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory in California. Richard, thank you so much for joining us.

Allen: Great. Happy to be with you.

(SOUNDBITE OF DJ HARRISON'S “ERYKAH'S GUN”)

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