Political earthquake in Ukraine

It's been almost three weeks since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired his controversial chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Although his successor remains a mystery, it is difficult to overstate the profound effects this dismissal is bound to have on the Ukrainian government.

Despite the relative institutional insignificance of the office of president, Yermak transformed it into the single most powerful body in the Ukrainian government. Since becoming chief of staff in 2020, Yermak has gained unprecedented influence over the country's domestic and foreign policy. He was a de facto co-president, even though he was not the country's prime minister — who is supposed to share the country's executive power — and despite growing allegations of corruption and nepotism that came from civil society, from journalists, and from the political opposition to Zelensky.

Zelensky ignored critics for years, until anti-corruption investigators stormed Yermak's apartment in central Kiev on the morning of November 28. They came with a search warrant related to a sprawling corruption case that has already implicated a number of other close friends of Zelensky. Hours later, Zelensky gave a speech announcing the reset of the office of the president.

“I don't want anyone to have any questions for Ukraine,” the president said, referring to growing criticism from civil society and even Ukraine's allies abroad.

However, the “questions for Ukraine” remain primarily about who will replace Yermak. Zelensky is reportedly considering appointing the head of defense intelligence, Kirilo Budanov, or the minister of digital transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, to the position. But nearly three weeks after the chief of staff's departure, the president has yet to name Yermack's successor. More important questions remain. Chief among them is whether the new person, whoever he may be, will be able to fix the dysfunctional system that Yermak has spent years building.

Unbearable power

Just like his boss, comedian Zelensky, Yermak was not a traditional choice for the job.

Before becoming chief of staff in 2020, Yermack was an entertainment lawyer and film producer with no political experience. He owned a number of law firms and film companies, and even participated in the production of several films. Yermak has said in interviews that he met Zelensky in 2010 when they were both working in television, and Yermack's firm was providing legal services for a television channel for which Zelensky was executive producer at the time.

For nine months before assuming this senior position, Yermak was an advisor to Zelensky. In this role, he successfully led negotiations on a prisoner exchange in September 2019 that repatriated 35 Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia. He also secretly met with President Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, in Madrid in 2019. The meeting was part of Trump's efforts to find bad information about then-presidential candidate Joe Biden, whose son was on the board of Ukrainian energy company Burisma. These efforts culminated when Trump asked Zelensky to investigate Biden's activities in Ukraine or risk losing millions in military aid, a return that led to the impeachment inquiry. Yermack was a key player in the saga, leading communications through the “irregular channel” — that is, non-diplomatic channels that ran through Giuliani — between the two departments.

After becoming head of the President's Office in February 2020, Yermak was given full access to Zelensky. He was right by the president at all events and meetings, and officials reportedly complained that it was impossible to talk with Zelensky without Yermak in the room.

This literal affinity and close personal friendship between Zelensky and Yermak was manifested in many ways.

Yermak served as a gatekeeper for Zelensky, personally carrying out many of the president's orders while insulating him from criticism and opposing views. Such an attractive environment, later coupled with global adulation for Zelensky as a modern-day Winston Churchill after the large-scale Russian invasion, sometimes contrasted sharply with Zelensky's reception at home. Civil society members, activists, and journalists routinely criticized the president for concentrating too much power in the hands of the presidency and failing to deliver on promises of good governance. Zelensky has been attacking Ukrainian journalists during rare press conferences, apparently shocked by their questions about the government's effectiveness, and accusing them of being hired mouthpieces — though he has not specified who they are referring to.

Most importantly, Zelensky trusted Yermak so much that he enabled him to serve as the de facto appointing authority for many positions in the government, from members of the boards of directors of strategic state-owned enterprises to members of the Cabinet; Those appointed were often either unqualified or involved in corruption scandals. Yermak's term also coincided with two other crucial developments: the overwhelming victory of Zelensky's party in parliament in 2019, and the declaration of martial law in Ukraine due to a large-scale Russian invasion in 2022, which made elections impossible and consolidated the president's wartime mandate.

The close personal relationship between Yermak and Zelensky, as well as unique domestic political factors, has transformed the Office of the President into the single most powerful institution in the country.

“As chief of staff, Yermak had real influence over a great deal of operations, personally leading more than a hundred working groups on everything from the issue of combating international bribery to the repatriation of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, essentially spanning all areas of public policy,” Anastasia Radina, a Ukrainian lawmaker from Zelensky’s party, told me.

“It is no secret that the vast majority of employment decisions were either made in the Office of the President, or were discussed and approved by the Office of the President, given the government’s supermajority in Parliament,” Radina added.

Numerous Ukrainian media investigations revealed Yermak's ties to officials in all sectors of the government. His followers currently hold some of the most powerful positions in Ukraine, including prime minister and prosecutor. The heads of the State Property Fund, the Antimonopoly Commission, the State Customs Service, and the Tax Service, as well as members of the supervisory boards of several state-owned enterprises, are also said to be partners of Yermak. The list is not comprehensive.

Several of Yermack's deputies have also been the target of corruption investigations. The authorities accused one of the representatives of corruption, and two others remain under investigation.

The influence of the former Chief of Staff also extended to Ukraine's foreign policy. Yermak led Ukraine's delegation during peace talks with Russia and the United States, despite his lack of English proficiency and reports that he angered Ukraine's allies with his communication style and misunderstanding of the American political context.

Ivana Klimpesh-Tsintsadze, a lawmaker from the opposition European Solidarity Party, told me that Yermak's authority “far exceeded the powers vested in the head of the (office of the president).” It included “Yermak's direct instructions to government officials and parliamentary leadership, the transfer of Foreign Ministry functions to his very strange deputies, the de facto authorization from President Zelensky to perform the function of National Security Advisor,” and more.

The fall of Yermak

Yermak's ouster was the result of Operation Midas – the 15-month investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) that exposed a corruption scheme in the country's energy industry. The scheme consisted of a criminal group that forced suppliers of the state-owned energy company, Energoatom, to pay them bribes. The scandal implicated several of Zelensky's close friends, as well as the Ukrainian energy and justice ministers, who have since been fired.

The National Bureau of Ukraine did not initially name Yermak as one of the suspects when it announced the results of its investigation on November 10. But given his widespread influence, it was difficult to believe that such a large-scale operation involving the top officers of the Ukrainian government could escape Yermak's eye.

On November 16, the head of the specialized anti-corruption prosecutor’s office, NABU’s partner organization, said that another person was under investigation, a person codenamed “Alibaba.” This person allegedly held meetings with law enforcement agencies to coordinate attacks on anti-corruption agencies and prosecute their investigators. Ukraine's leading news newspaper Ukrynska Pravda reported that Alibaba is Yermak, who has long carried the nickname “AB” after his and his patronymic, Andrei Borisovich.

A number of Ukrainian lawmakers, including some from Zelensky's party, called for Yermak's removal, but Zelensky ignored them and not only retained Yermak, but appointed him again to lead a new round of negotiations with the United States.

But less than three weeks later, NABU investigators searched Yermack's apartment. Although he has not been charged with a crime, and has not yet been charged, it is clear that the crisis has become too big for Zelensky to ignore.

“There should be no reason to be distracted by anything other than defending Ukraine,” Zelensky said in a speech on November 28, hours after the inspection. “There will be a reset of the office of the President of Ukraine.”

Three weeks later, Zelensky has yet to appoint his next chief of staff.

The government has already begun to transition to democracy. Instead of the usual top-down approach, Parliament has reportedly found its footing and begun working with the Cabinet to find ministerial replacements, all without the involvement of the Office of the President.

However, Yermak's removal alone would likely not be enough to purge the government of the former chief of staff's countless aides, nor would it alone lead to reform of the highly centralized system of governance he has built over the years.

“I would like to see a comprehensive reform of the relationship between the president and the office of the president with the Cabinet of Ministers and Parliament, and an end to manual control (of the government), which violates the law,” opposition lawmaker Lee Kalmush-Tsintsadze told me.

She added: “It is not just about personalities, but rather about reviewing the system and rules of governance.”

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