An earthquake swarm shakes the Gulf region overnight. USGS is weighing the chances of larger opportunities in the future

SAN RAMON, Calif. — Nearly 150 earthquakes have struck fault lines in San Ramon over the past month, including a 3.1-magnitude quake that occurred overnight, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

San Ramon lies directly above the Calaveras Fault, which helps explain these frequent earthquake swarms. As fluids move through the complex network of fractures beneath the city, many small earthquakes are triggered, leading to the activity mentioned above.

Earthquake experts define a “swarm” as a series of small earthquakes that occur over a period of time.

UC Berkeley's seismic lab says there were 24 small earthquakes in San Ramon last week, but six times that number since November — about 150 quakes since early November, according to Robert DeGroot of the U.S. Geological Survey.

“There were other swarms in the area until 2015. There were approximately 644 earthquakes,” De Groot told reporters. “None of these events resulted in a larger earthquake – something we consider devastating. There is actually about a 5 percent chance that this will result in a larger earthquake,” De Groot said.

“It's very scary when people feel earthquakes on a regular basis like this,” said Richard Allen, director of the UC Berkeley Seismic Laboratory. “Its size is small, but it comes with a strong tremor that people feel in San Ramon,” he added.

Tuesday's tremor shook the residents of San Ramon.

One resident said: “The epicenter is here in Tiki – three tremors today, the epicenter of each in San Ramon! Pictures flying, frightened dogs, and little sleep.”

One woman, Ana Gomez, said, “3.0 I saw our Christmas tree move!”

“Yes. I was startled waking up at exactly like 5:53 this morning. I'm ready for them to stop already,” said one neighbor.

Residents are concerned that the series of tremors is a warning sign of a much larger earthquake in the future. The Calaveras Fault last produced a notable earthquake in October 2007, the 5.4 magnitude Alum Rock earthquake, which exploded to the south, according to the USGS.

Historically, the southern half of the central portion of the Calaveras Fault has been the most seismically active part of the fault.

It produced the 6.2 magnitude Morgan Hill earthquake in 1984. The 5.9 magnitude Coyote Lake earthquake in 1979 ruptured slightly to the south of these other earthquakes. But researchers at the USGS expect the fault to be unable to produce an earthquake much larger than the 1984 Morgan Hill quake.

The chances of anything significantly higher occurring in the next 30 years were estimated at 11 percent by the 2003 Working Group on Earthquake Probabilities in California.

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