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Billboard: A major earthquake in Tokyo could kill up to 18,000 people

Billboard: A major earthquake in Tokyo could kill up to 18,000 people


An earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher in the Tokyo area would kill up to 18,000 people and destroy about 400,000 buildings, according to estimates by a government expert panel released on December 19.

These numbers were lower than the estimates issued in 2013, which expected the death of 23,000 people and the collapse or demolition of 610,000 buildings due to this earthquake, which had long been expected to hit the capital.

The decrease in the number of estimated deaths and destroyed buildings reflects advances in seismic strengthening and fire prevention measures.

However, the government's disaster reduction target of “almost halving damage by the end of fiscal year 2024” has not been achieved.

The Cabinet Office plans to establish a baseline countermeasures plan during this financial year based on the latest estimates.

The expert panel estimated the extent of damage if a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck beneath Tokyo and recorded a maximum seismic intensity of 7 on the Japanese scale of 7.

Such an earthquake will have the greatest impact on the basic functions of the capital, and the damage will reach its maximum if it occurs on a dry winter evening with winds gusting at a speed of 28.8 kilometers per hour.

The committee said that fires will cause about 70 percent of deaths and damage to buildings.

As Japanese society ages, more and more people are staying indoors, leading to a rise in the estimated death toll from building collapses and fires. The estimate also took into account population growth in Tokyo and surrounding areas.

However, anti-seismic measures have advanced in the Tokyo area.

For example, the proportion of residences with seismic reinforcement increased from 79% in 2008 to 90% in 2023.

The Tokyo area also includes 2,500 hectares of “densely populated areas considered dangerous during an earthquake” due to the large number of wooden houses there. The size of these hazardous areas has been reduced by 82 percent.

The latest estimates did not include high-rise residential towers, which have increased mainly in coastal areas, because no significant earthquake damage to such buildings has been confirmed and quantitative figures are not available.

The latest report also estimated for the first time the number of indirect deaths caused by fatigue and stress during evacuation, aggravation of injuries or aggravation of pre-existing diseases.

Expectations ranged from 16,000 to 41,000 earthquake-related deaths.

These figures were based on deaths in Iwate and Miyagi prefectures following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 and those following the Noto Peninsula earthquake in 2024.

It is possible to suspend cashless payment

The committee said a major earthquake in Tokyo would cause economic losses of 83 trillion yen ($532 billion), including 45 trillion yen in damage to homes and corporate offices, and 38 trillion yen in reduced production and services due to prolonged power and water outages.

Reflecting recent social changes, the report pointed to risks that could destabilize society, such as the suspension of cashless payments using smartphones and the spread of disaster-related misinformation on social media.

The committee also simulated damage from a magnitude 8 earthquake, similar to the 7.9 magnitude Great Kanto Earthquake that killed more than 105,000 people in 1923.

In the worst-case scenario, the number of deaths could reach 23,000 people, and 414,000 buildings will be destroyed or demolished, according to the report.

About 30% of Japan's population is concentrated in Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures.

The report stressed the importance for the government, citizens, businesses and communities to view preparedness as their own responsibility and take concrete measures.

“In a national crisis-level disaster, damage can be minimized when self-help, mutual aid and public support work together,” the report said.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16237368

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