Committee warns that Tokyo earthquake could spark a national crisis

A Japanese government committee estimates that a strong earthquake directly hitting Tokyo could kill up to 18,000 people and cause damage worth about 83 trillion yen, or about $533 billion. The committee warned that the disaster would be on the scale of a national crisis, and called for community-level efforts to mitigate its impact.

The Committee reviewed a previous estimate issued 12 years ago, taking into account the progress made in disaster prevention measures and social changes during that period. It submitted a new damage estimate to Disaster Management Minister Akama Jiro on Friday.

The latest assessment examined 24 possible earthquake scenarios, focusing on and around the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Under one scenario, in which a magnitude 7.3 earthquake strikes directly under the southern part of central Tokyo, a wide area including Tokyo and neighboring prefectures such as Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa would be expected to experience tremors of at least 6 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 0 to 7. Some areas could record a maximum intensity of 7.

The estimate says that in a worst-case scenario, with such an earthquake occurring on a stormy winter evening, the death toll could rise to 18,000 people, and 400,000 buildings could be destroyed by shaking or burned. The assessment adds that about 70 percent of the damage will be caused by fires.

The expected death toll and the number of damaged buildings are between 20 and 30 percent lower than previously estimated, reflecting progress in making homes more earthquake-resistant and reducing densely built-up areas. However, the estimated damages would be devastating.

Up to 24 million people may be affected by power outages, and up to 8.4 million people may be unable to return to their homes.

The assessment warns that the economic impact could be felt not only at home but also abroad if workforce declines and production disruptions persist for a prolonged period and lead to business failures.

Foreign nationals are likely to face difficulties in a possible Tokyo earthquake

Support for foreign nationals is expected to be a challenge if a strong earthquake strikes directly below the Tokyo area.

The number of tourist arrivals exceeded a record 36 million last year. Many of them visited the Japanese capital and its surrounding areas.

The number of foreign residents is also on the rise, with about 40% of them living in Tokyo and neighboring Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures.

In July, when tsunami alerts and alerts were issued following a powerful earthquake that struck Russia's far-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, many foreign nationals were puzzled by the suspension of transport services.

If a major earthquake hits the greater Tokyo area, foreign nationals may become trapped in fires or other dangerous situations if relevant information is not available in their own languages ​​and they cannot evacuate.

Foreign nationals can also become isolated in evacuation centers and may not be able to get the support they need.

False information can hamper rescue operations

Another risk pointed out by experts is the spread of fake information through social media and other means. In 2016, when two consecutive massive earthquakes struck Kumamoto Prefecture in southwestern Japan, false information about a lion escaping from a zoo was spread online.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to know whether information is real or not due to the spread of generative AI. False information can hamper evacuation and rescue operations, and may also have a negative impact on the economy.

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