Glacier city at risk in New Zealand’s next major earthquake

Glacier city at risk in New Zealand’s next major earthquake

Franz Joseph Glacier, New Zealand. Source: Vaido Otsar

The Alpine Rift appears as the boundary between the snow-capped Southern Alps and the verdant plains of New Zealand’s west coast, South Island. Source: Geoff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA / GSFC

The famous Alpine Rift runs through the heart of the ice country of New Zealand. The 600 km (370 miles) fault line on the tectonic plate boundaries of Eurasia and the Pacific Ocean beneath the country’s southern island causes infrequent but large earthquakes. The small town of Franz Josef sits on the line of fire, 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the often-visited Franz Josef glacier in the Southern Alps, Ca ‘Terrier or Te Moana (Maori name), and is a popular destination for visitors. New research confirms that an upcoming Alpine fault with a force of 8.0 (M8), which has a 30 percent chance of occurring in the next 50 years, would destroy Franz Joseph.

The New Zealand government supports projects such as the AF8, a collaboration between scientists and national civil defense, to prepare for the M8 Alpine Fault earthquake. By identifying potential rupture scenarios, the AF8 develops effective emergency response plans. However, since development occurred along the fault for decades before earthquake risk was fully known, the expected damage would be widespread.

Source: United States Geological Survey

A fault in the Alps may produce one of the most destructive earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand due to its geological characteristics. The rift is the sliding boundary at which the Australian Plate and the Pacific Plate move horizontally after each other. However, the plates are locked and when they overcome these barriers they produce large but infrequent earthquakes. The rift has ruptured 27 times in the past 8,000 years, every 300 years on average. With the last rupture in 1717, another major earthquake is expected soon.

New Zealand is no stranger to earthquakes because it is located in the seismically active Pacific Ring. The 2011 earthquake, which is part of a series of earthquakes from 2010-2012 known as the Canterbury earthquakes, devastated Christchurch, the nation’s second most populous city at the time. The M6.3 earthquake claimed 180 lives – 130 people were lost in the collapse of only two large buildings recently – and caused massive material damage. John Mutter, a geophysicist at Columbia University, told GlacierHub that compared to other natural disasters, “earthquakes cause the most deaths because we cannot predict them.”

CTV Building in Christchurch 24 minutes after the earthquake. Source: Michael Lucas

The Southern Alps, which include the Franz Josef glaciers and the Fox, are a stunning draw for tourists. Although Franz Josef has only 441 residents (according to the 2013 census), due to its proximity to these glaciers, it receives more than a million visitors annually and up to 6,000 visitors every night in the high season. As Stephen Espinner, a conservation and tourism expert at Lincoln University, explained to GlacierHub, “Glaciers have supported these communities. [of the West Coast] Economically for more than 100 years. “

The village of Franz Joseph. Source: Shellie Evans via Flickr

Downtown Franz Josef, including the gas station, the police station, motels and several businesses, is on the fault line. As Caroline Orkiston, a researcher from the University of Otago and a lead scientist on the AF8 project, told GlacierHub, “Franz Joseph is almost zero point when it comes to future alpine earthquakes.” Horizontal ground displacement – motion – of at least 8 meters (26 feet) and vertical displacement of at least 1.5 meters (5 feet), combined with significant vibration during an earthquake, can eliminate any infrastructure on the fault. In addition, due to the mountainous terrain, the vibrations may displace material from the mountains leading to landslides that could disrupt rivers and roads, Mutter explained. If the rupture occurs during the peak tourist season, a large number of people could be at risk.

As the Westland County Council, the local governing body in Franz Josef, told GlacierHub, after an earthquake, “It is crucial to ensure that access to the area and the icy country is available at all times for any institution or visitor.” Losing access to the West Coast after an earthquake could be particularly devastating to a region that depends on its tourism economy. According to Spinner, road access is expected to be lost for weeks or months and some places may never be reopened to tourists.

A 2016 report from GNS Science, New Zealand’s leading earth science research organization, recommends that either establishments move away from the fault line – outside the 200-meter-long avoidance zone that may experience maximum impact – or the city travel from 5-10 kilometers (3–10 km). 6 miles) northwest of the rift to reduce the effects of the earthquake on infrastructure and people. While Westland County Council contributes to the AF8 and works with agencies such as the National Emergency Management Agency to respond to disasters, no resettlement or adaptation plans have yet been implemented.

However, transportation brings significant costs. After the Christchurch earthquake, the New Zealand government acquired neighborhoods, and bought real estate so people could move. However, the Westland County Council wrote, “Councils do not have adequate funding to purchase endangered real estate [and] Landlords do not want to move away from their livelihoods. ”In addition, the cost of infrastructure in a new location is more than what residents or local government can afford. Transportation can harm tourism because“ a town is 20 km away. [12 miles] On the road to gravity [the glacier] “It may not have the same traction as the one directly on the doorstep,” said Espinner.

Many community members have also resisted efforts to relocate the town. Although the Canterbury earthquake sequence increased public awareness of earthquake risks, “the problem is to turn that into action,” Orkiston said, because “people have very strong bonds.” After the Canterbury earthquakes, not many people moved even when temporary housing was provided. In Franz Joseph, residents do not want to move despite awareness of the risks, as their livelihoods depend on the glacier. With road shows in the Southern Alps and teaching modules on physical geography for middle and high school students, AF8 aims to increase public awareness of natural hazards so that communities can develop a plan for resilience and adaptation on the road.

Franz Joseph Glacier. Source: Eli Duke via Flickr

Franz Joseph is also accustomed to natural hazards as he is located in a multi-hazard area. The retreat of the Franz Josef Glacier increased the risk of falling rocks, restricting access for tourists as a result. Moreover, accumulation of materials such as stone and sediments in valleys due to ice retreating raised the river bed of the Waiho River – which runs between the Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers – and increased the risk of flooding. With heavy rains in the area, a flood of the Waiho River in July 2019 destroyed a bridge connecting the two glaciers.

Building resilience strategies to respond effectively to the upcoming earthquake in the Alps may be the only option for communities that have lived along the fault line for decades. Moreover, Orchiston explained, due to New Zealand’s location, no part of the country is without natural hazards ranging from earthquakes to volcanoes to tsunamis. We have to live with them, and we have to learn to live with them [natural hazard risks] Better than we were in the past. “

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