The Democratic primary season begins with an anti-establishment earthquake

There is no official winner yet, but the Democratic primary in the special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District is already amounting to a political earthquake in the state.

In an unlikely development that might have been completely impossible not long ago, a progressive activist and organizer backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, R-Vermont, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is leading the vote count. Analilia Mejia is slightly ahead of former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who represented the neighboring 7th District for two terms and moved elsewhere in an attempt to relaunch his political career.

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Yes, it is not surprising at this political moment that a leftist rebel like Mejia would score an upset in the Democratic contest. But what makes her potential win so remarkable is where it could happen, if she maintains her lead in this very close race.

This is New Jersey, the state where Democratic machine politics have lived into the 21st century. Nominations like Mejia’s — which were not supported by any of the district’s formal Democratic organizations, relying instead on grassroots energy — have long been exercises in fantasy.

But the state’s Democratic Party has been rocked by a series of events in the past few years. A quick review of these successive circumstances puts Mejia’s campaign in prime context. And a campaign like this finding support in a place like this sends a broader message about what motivates Democratic voters today.

To understand how we got to this point, we have to go back to the indictment and eventual corruption conviction of Sen. Robert Menendez, a product of the Hudson County machine who owed his seat to the kind of backroom deals that were necessary between politicians in the Garden State.

Menendez’s 2023 indictment was, surprisingly, his second brush with federal law enforcement — he had survived a hung jury corruption trial five years earlier. Back then, in 2018, Democratic leaders in the state rallied around Menendez after his trial and forced him to win his re-election race.

But discontent was simmering among the Democrats’ grassroots. This was the dawn of the Trump era, and the Democratic Party was awash in a new kind of energy, as young voters and professional-class suburbanites were suddenly animated by the politics of resistance. Menendez was not the type of candidate they signed up to support.

The second indictment of Menendez came as he prepared to run again in 2024. It was immediately clear that the party would not blindly embrace him this time and would look elsewhere — but to whom?

For generations in New Jersey Democratic politics, this question has been answered by power brokers, especially the leaders of the largest county Democratic parties. They controlled deep war chests, powerful turnout armies, a roster of loyal local officials, and — crucially — “the line”: the highly visible, highly official-looking spot on the primary ballot reserved for the candidate of the county party’s choice. Candidates who do not receive the line will be judged in a far corner of the ballot somewhere near the central time zone.

This is the way it has always worked. Phil Murphy, the Democrat who was elected governor in 2017, did it that way, locking down crucial counties and blocking his known opponents — and essentially winning the primary a year before any actual votes were cast. Murphy was in his second term when Menendez was indicted again, and he had a plan: His wife, Tammy Murphy, was interested in her political career, and this was an opportunity for her to run. Murphy and his allies went to work putting all the usual puzzle pieces together to secure her Senate nomination.

But the plan was disrupted by the then MP. Andy Kim, who was elected in the 2018 midterm blue wave — on the same ballot as Menendez, by the way. In his campaigns, Kim exploited this resistance base and realized that these were not voters eager to sit back and let the district parties choose Menendez’s replacement. So, without a single major regulatory endorsement, he jumped into the race.

Then he went to court. Instead of trying to earn the “streak”, he decided he would try to get rid of it altogether. And he did. A federal judge ruled in March 2024 that the line violated “the integrity of the democratic process.” Within weeks, Tammy Murphy dropped out of the race, and suddenly the field was open to Kim, who easily won the Senate seat in the fall.

Thanks to President Donald Trump’s return to office, the energy that fueled Kim continues to flow through New Jersey’s Democratic Party culture. The race in New Jersey’s 11th District is strong evidence.

The region consists of three counties: Essex, Morris, and Passaic. Essex has the most votes. Traditionally, it has had one of the strongest Democratic organizations in the state. In the post-New Line world of New Jersey politics, county parties can still offer their endorsement, and Essex County went with one of its Board of Commissioners, Brendan Gill.

Morris County, which is suburban and historically Republican, did not have much of a Democratic machine, but nonetheless gave Malinowski its support.

Passaic, a much smaller part of the district, raised its hands and supported two local residents, Board of County Commissioners member John Bartlett and former Lt. Gov. Tahisha Way.

None of the provincial parties supported Mejia. No one thought about it seriously.

But here is Mejia, with the crucial votes in this primary still to be counted, and he is somehow leading this race. She owes that lead to Essex County, of all places, where she has a wide lead over Malinowski — almost doubling the win of Gill, the Essex organization candidate.

This is not the kind of thing that was happening in New Jersey politics. However, this seems to be happening more and more, and not just in New Jersey either.

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