Scientists map the invisible fault that could trigger the next big earthquake

Deep in the Sea of ​​Marmara, the Earth’s crust may already be starting to organize itself in preparation for a future earthquake. Using electromagnetic signals rather than seismic waves, the researchers revealed hidden differences in the fault that indicate where stress may be concentrated. Credit: SciTechDaily.com

A new 3D subsurface model shows how changes in the strength of rocks beneath the Sea of ​​Marmara could trigger large earthquakes in the future along the North Anatolia Fault. The results improve understanding of fault mechanics and support better prediction of earthquakes in the Istanbul region.

Türkiye is located in one of the most earthquake-prone regions in the world, where the Eurasian, African, Arabian and Anatolian tectonic plates interact. This complex geological environment has produced many devastating earthquakes throughout the country’s history.

The most notable of these was the Erzincan earthquake in 1939, which killed more than 30,000 people. Since that event, researchers have observed a striking trend in which large, damaging earthquakes appear to be steadily progressing westward along the North Anatolia Fault (NAF).

Many scientists now believe that the most likely location for the next major earthquake is under the Sea of ​​Marmara. This part of the fault has not caused a major earthquake in more than 250 years, raising concerns about increasing stress over time. However, despite decades of study, the detailed structure of the fault beneath the Sea of ​​Marmara has remained unclear, limiting the ability to precisely determine where future earthquakes may begin or how best to limit their impact.

Building the first 3D model of electromagnetic error

To fill this gap, a research team led by Dr. Yasuo Ogawa, Professor Emeritus and Research Fellow at the Interdisciplinary Resilience Research Center, Integrated Research Institute, Tokyo Science Institute (ScienceTokyo), Japan (also a visiting scholar at Tohoku University, Japan), together with Dr. Tülay Kaya Eken, Assistant Professor at Boğaziçi University, Turkey, conducted a detailed investigation of the area under the Sea of ​​Marmara.

Their study, published in the journal Geology, provides the first complete 3D model of this important subsurface region. The model provides new insight into the physical processes that control how and where earthquakes form along a fault.

This new 3D model of the resistivity beneath the North Anatolia Fault will help geoscientists more accurately identify areas at risk of major earthquakes. Credit: Tokyo Science Institute

To create this model, the researchers used a large data set of magnetometer measurements taken by more than 20 previously deployed stations. Simply put, magnetometer stations can record subtle changes in the Earth’s electric and magnetic fields caused by structures deep underground.

This information enabled the team to reconstruct a 3D representation of the area’s electrical resistivity, through a process known as 3D inversion, down to depths of tens of kilometers below the seafloor.

Mapping weak and closed areas that may lead to ruptures

Analysis of the completed model revealed a complex pattern of areas of high and low electrical resistance. Because resistance decreases in the presence of liquids such as water, areas of low resistance tend to be mechanically weaker, while areas of high resistance are stronger and stiffer.

“We believe that the observed resistive anomalies indicate areas of stress accumulation, highlighting the ongoing processes of fault mechanics at play in this critical region,” Ogawa highlights. Based on these findings, the team suggests that large earthquakes in the future may start at the boundaries where weaker and stronger parts of the Earth’s crust meet or along the edges of highly resistant areas.

Taken together, the findings bring researchers closer to answering a question of great importance to people across Türkiye. As Ogawa explains: “Our results can be used to estimate the likely location and magnitude of future strong earthquakes, with major implications for disaster prevention and mitigation.” Continued studies of this type may ultimately help reduce loss of life and damage when the next major earthquake strikes along the NAF.

Reference: “3D electromagnetic imaging of weak, highly deformable fluid-rich zones and the closed portion of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of ​​Marmara” by Tolay Kaya Ekin, Yasuo Ogawa, Yoshiya Usui, Takafumi Kasaya, M. Kemal Tuncer, Yoshimori Honkura, Naoto Ochiman, Masaaki Matsushima, and Wirachai Siribunvaraporn, 8 December 2025, Geology.DOI: 10.1130/G52995.1

This study was funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Japan Science and Technology Agency.

Don’t miss a single breakthrough: join the SciTechDaily newsletter. Follow us on Google and Google News.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos