“It will be an earthquake for France”: Is Marseille about to vote for the far right? | France

Natalie, a market trader in her 40s, woke up early to prepare a plate of paella rice. She was putting them in tubs at a market in southern Marseille last week when a crowd of far-right voters approached, promising cleaner and safer streets if she voted for them in local elections.

“We had our coins stolen here at Christmas time,” Natalie said. “I had my purse stolen too. It usually happens at the end of the day, around 7 p.m. I worry about my elderly grandmothers. I once had a necklace torn off me downtown.”

Nathalie said she usually votes for the traditional right, but felt that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party was now a good choice. “We’ve never tried them, so now we can give them a chance. I hope they can do something in terms of security,” she said.

Suzanne (80 years old), a retired pharmacist who shops in one of the southern neighborhoods of the coastal city on the Mediterranean, said that she had also spent her life supporting the conservative parties of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, but, like many of her wealthy neighbors, she was turning to the extreme right. “I’ve never voted RN before, but I’m going to try it,” she said. “They are more active and efficient than others.”

France casts its votes on Sunday in the first round of local elections seen as a political heat test ahead of crucial presidential elections next year. As Emmanuel Macron’s two terms in office draw to a close, it is uncertain who will head Europe’s second-largest economy.

Printemps Marseillais campaign headquarters, coalition of outgoing mayor Benoît Payen. Photograph: Theo Giacometti/The Guardian

With its multicultural history of immigration and 5 million tourists a year, Marseille, France’s second-largest city, became a major focus of the campaign after the city’s leftist mayor, Benoît Payen, warned that far-right opinion polls were so high that he could run for city council.

“If Marseille falls to the National Front, it will be an earthquake for France,” said Bien, whose group Printemps Marseillais, a left-wing coalition of Socialists and Greens, won the city in 2020 after 25 years from the traditional right.

“Victory is possible,” Jordan Bardella, head of the National Front party and a potential 2027 presidential candidate, said while touring Marseille last week.

The National Front has focused on municipal police and security to confront deadly drug trafficking gangs in Marseille, which the far right has likened to a small South American-style drug state.

“It’s about restoring order,” said Franck Alessio, the National Front’s mayoral candidate, as he made the election tours in the 9th district of southern Marseille.

Franck Alessio, National Rally candidate for mayor of Marseille, distributes leaflets at the Prado market. Photograph: Theo Giacometti/The Guardian

Alessio, 45, an MP for the West Marseille electoral district, was a ministerial advisor to the traditional right during Sarkozy’s presidency, before joining Le Pen in 2015. His proposals for Marseille include a special, timed entry permit to local beaches for families and the elderly, designed to prevent “delinquents… who listen to loud music and smoke bars.”

That the National Front was the opposition’s main rival in Marseille in the March elections is significant because French local elections – especially in major cities – do not typically have far-right strength.

In this wealthy, historically right-wing neighborhood, Alessio stands on familiar ground. Photograph: Theo Giacometti/The Guardian

For the past 20 years, the largest city run by the National Front has been Perpignan, near the Spanish border, with a population of 121,000. The party will welcome the victory in Marseille, which has a population of about 900,000 people, as a step towards assuming the French presidency next year.

But Marseille – unlike Paris – has been building a significant far-right vote for many years. In the early 2024 general election, the National Front and its far-right allies tripled their seats in Marseille, winning three of the city’s seven parliamentary seats. Marseille remains one of the most segregated cities in France, with a large income gap between its affluent neighborhoods and lower-income communities in high-rise estates or in run-down buildings in the city More than one in four people in Marseille live below the poverty line. More than 13% of primary housing stock is classified as slum.

Politicians from all parties describe the close mayoral race as a battle for Marseille’s identity. Historically, the city welcomed immigration from North Africa, Italy, Armenia and the Comoros. It has a large Muslim community and one of the largest urban concentrations of Jewish people in Europe.

Nora Preziosi, right-wing candidate (independent) is running for mayor of the 13th and 14th districts. Photograph: Theo Giacometti/The Guardian

The left says the National Front is anti-immigration, racist, xenophobic and at odds with the city. The leftist city hall recently renamed a street in honor of Ibrahim Ali, a 17-year-old Marseille high school student who was shot dead on his way home from rap practice in 1995 by an activist who was putting up posters for Jean-Marie Le Pen’s National Front party, which has since been renamed the Front National.

In northern Marseille, the densely populated 13th and 14th arrondissements consist of a mixture of historic village-style neighborhoods and high-rise residential complexes. Like Paris, Marseille has a city mayor, and several mayors of smaller regions. In this region, far-right Stephane Ravier won the mayor’s office for the National Front in 2014 and held the position until 2017. He was found guilty on appeal this year of an illegal conflict of interest in appointing his son to the mayor’s office and is now appealing to France’s highest court. His niece, Sandrine D’Angio, who took over his position and was also convicted of nepotism in office, denies the charges and is appealing the ruling. She is currently the local candidate for RN.

Tina Biard-Sansonetti is the left-wing candidate of Printemps Marseille for the position of mayor of the district in the 13th and 14th districts. Photograph: Theo Giacometti/The Guardian

“The National Front was already running this sector of Marseille – daily life has not improved, on the contrary, it has become worse,” said Tina Bayard-Sansonetti, a candidate for mayor of the Printemps Marseille district.

“There is a sense of disgust toward all politicians in general, which can affect voter turnout,” said Agnes, a local nanny and centrist voter.

Mohamed Aruel, 21, a law student who grew up here, is running for councilor in Printemps Marseillais. “The values ​​of the National Front are the absolute opposite of this very mixed neighbourhood,” he said. He felt it was important that young voters not abstain from voting.

Muhammad Arwil, 21 years old, law student. Photograph: Theo Giacometti/The Guardian

The Marseille mayoral race reflects broader problems across France, specifically access to public services. Five years ago, Macron announced that the state would invest €5bn (£4.3bn) in a special plan for Marseille to address gaps in services, including the city’s seriously dilapidated school buildings and incomplete public transport, as well as police and justice resources to combat drug crime. Printemps Marseille says 27 schools have been built or completely renovated, while the number of municipal police has been doubled to 700 officers.

RN are not sure they will win Marseille. Much depends on who runs in the second runoff, and whether Payen’s left might come to an understanding with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left France Proud party to take an anti-FN stance. The National Front has so far benefited from a poor campaign by the traditional right.

But Marseille is just one of several towns and cities in southern France targeted by the far right. Further down the coast, in Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, Eric Ciotti, who resigned as leader of the traditional right-wing party, the Republicans (LR), to join Le Pen in 2024, hopes to win the city from his arch-rival and former right-wing ally, Christian Estrosi.

In the Saint-Just neighborhood (13th district), candidates from across the political spectrum campaigned. Photograph: Theo Giacometti/The Guardian

Vincent Martini, a professor of politics at the University of Côte d’Azur, said the main factor in Marseille and Nice is the union of the right and far-right coming from the voter base.

“Republican voters – whose party leadership has taken increasingly more radical positions and are closer to the National Front – are thinking: ‘There’s no problem voting for the National Front, because anyway, the Liberal leadership over the last decade has been very extreme, so we’re very close to the most important issues.’

Martini warned that local votes reflect local issues, not national political ideology, but said the National Front would characterize any potential win in Nice or Marseille as a sign of a “national dynamism” or a “stepping stone” for the presidency.

Back in northern Marseille, Monique Cordier, a former teacher and optometrist who works for Marseille’s leftist mayor, said: “It’s not a given that the National Front will win at all. I honestly don’t think they will win. It’s not in the Marseille mentality to be racist.”

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