Record earthquake near Cadia gold mine sparks calls for more monitors

When mechanic Dave Cowan felt his home in central western New South Wales shaking on Tuesday night, he thought there had been an explosion.

“All of a sudden I heard this big rumble and then the bang,” he said.

“It felt like the house moved four inches…it was scary.”

The movement caused the cornices to separate from his ceiling in the kitchen and lounge room of his Forest Reefs home.

Dave Cowan says he hopes the government will install more public monitors in the Midwest given its popularity for mining projects. (ABC Midwest: Lanny Oatway)

“It must have been a fair shake, it was amazing,” Mr Cowan said.

The Australian Geosciences Authority recorded the 4.5 magnitude earthquake that struck near the Cadia Gold Mine in Newmont as the largest earthquake ever recorded in the region.

It took the company more than 10 hours to evacuate all underground workers to the surface, and its underground operations remain closed.

The Australian Geosciences Authority classified the earthquake at a depth of 5 kilometers, the same depth as the two aftershocks.

But the closest public observer I used to assess the tremor was owned by a citizen scientist in Oberon, more than 90 kilometers away.

The further away the monitoring device is, the more difficult it is to collect precise information such as the location, depth and aftershocks of the earthquake.

Mr Cowan said it seemed “crazy” there were not more government seismometers in the area.

“This area has the amount of mining activity going on – and they were talking about building another mine in McPhellames,” he said.

Ceiling damage in Dave Cowan’s living room. (ABC Midwest: Lanny Oatway)

“It makes sense to have something like this around this area… They’ll be able to keep an eye on things better.”

“Uncertainty” in the national grid

Jonathan Bathgate, senior seismologist at the Australian Geosciences Centre, said there was “uncertainty” in the location of the epicenter due to the distance between observers.

The agency has about 100 seismic monitoring stations throughout the country that record tremors of up to three magnitudes.

“We are unable to place seismographs everywhere,” he said.

The ShakeMap shows that tremors were felt approximately 400 kilometers away. (Supplied: Australian Geosciences)

“We would really like to have more data so that we could pinpoint the locations of earthquakes more accurately and with lower magnitude, but unfortunately it is not possible to maintain a grid of this density.”

The agency will install five instrument-equipped rapid-deployment kits around the Orange earthquake site to monitor aftershocks.

But Mr Bathgate was clear that the fieldwork was not about investigating whether work at the gold mine had affected the earthquake.

He said: “Our role is not to monitor mining activity. Our role is about the risk of earthquakes at the national level.”

“This feeds into things like the Australian Building Code and helps mitigate the impact of earthquakes.”

Geoscience Australia will prepare five clusters for rapid deployment to measure any aftershocks.

The “importance” of close observers

Dan Sandiford, a geophysics research fellow at the University of Melbourne, wondered whether National Grid should rethink its approach to setting up more seismometers.

“What you might need is a more targeted approach where you say we need to monitor areas where there is critical infrastructure and where there is historically high seismic activity,” he said.

“I think there are some clear highlights where we should have more monitoring.”

Although Newmont had its own seismic monitoring equipment at the mine, that data was not available to the public, Sandiford said.

It is still unclear whether mining activity caused the quake, but some characteristics of the tremor could indicate whether it is related to the earthquake.

One is how deep the quake and its aftershocks are, which Sandiford said is difficult to determine without careful monitoring.

“If you want to understand with the kinds of precision that are important when close-to-population events like this happen, people won’t necessarily be satisfied with many kilometers of uncertainty,” he said.

Sandiford also pointed to recurring tremors in the area as another possible clue.

Underground operations at Newmont’s Cadia Gold Mine remain suspended while the company works on a timeline for reopening. (Supplier: Newcrest Mining)

A 4.3-magnitude earthquake struck near a gold mine in 2017, halting its underground operations for three months.

“For a case like the Cadia mine, where there were two earthquakes with magnitudes above four magnitudes, I think most seismologists would certainly suggest that it is very likely that mining there is responsible for stress changes that could lead to seismic slip on faults potentially under or around the mine,” he said.

“We can’t say for sure, because the kinds of numbers we’re dealing with are still very small.”

He compared the two events that occurred near the Cadia mine with oil production in Oklahoma, the United States, which witnessed an increase in the region from a handful of tremors annually to hundreds.

“In this case, it was very clear to everyone that the seismicity was caused by that.”

Damage from Tuesday night’s earthquake in Dave Cowan’s kitchen. (ABC Midwest: Lanny Oatway)

Calls for an independent review

NSW Greens MP and mining spokeswoman Kate Fireman said a thorough investigation into any links would reassure the community.

She said: “I am not an expert, so I cannot say whether it is one way or another, but what we need is an independent investigation into the case to find out if there are links between seismic activity and gold mining.”

“This is crucial because the size of the gold mine is enormous, and it is important to know if these things are connected to each other.”

Earthquake site (left) and two aftershocks (right) at the mine site.

NSW Natural Resources Minister Courtney Hosos said she understood the community’s concerns about the quake.

“This is not an ordinary event, and our thoughts are with everyone affected,” she said.

“I’m really concerned at a time when society feels unstable and the Greens are trying to score political points.

“Gold and copper mining has been around in the Midwest for 100 years, but this geological fault has been around for millions.

“Drawing a definitive causal relationship between the two is not supported by any current scientific evidence.

Courtney Hosos says scientific evidence does not support a direct link between mine activities and earthquakes. (ABC News)

“Critical minerals must play a role in the global manufacturing supply chain for net-zero products such as solar panels and wind turbines.

“Worker safety is of the utmost importance. It is appropriate for mining to temporarily stop while operators conduct safety inspections and assess the effects of the earthquake.”

Newmont said in a statement that the earthquake caused damage to its underground facilities, but it was not significant.

She said that treatment processes are accelerating and returning to normal levels.

A timeline for reopening the underground mine is still being worked out, Newmont said.

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