The most dangerous fault line in the United States is overdue and could be catastrophic

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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – An earthquake on the most volatile fault line in the United States is overdue, and if one occurred it could be catastrophic for one of California’s most populous regions.

The San Andreas Fault has long been the subject of doomsday movies, and for good reason. This dangerous continental transform rift extends nearly 800 miles across California, passing through major population centers that could be devastated in the event of a major earthquake.

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The Hayward Fault, part of the San Andreas Fault System, extends 74 miles across part of the San Francisco Bay Area, and research shows that the seismically active fault is long overdue for an earthquake, so scientists are mapping the threat.

An aerial view south along the east side of San Francisco Bay, including the cities of San Lorenzo and Hayward. The Hayward fault runs along the base of the ridge.

(Marlie Miller/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

The past five major earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about every 140 years on average, and we are now well past that period since the last major faulting event in 1868, according to the UC Berkeley Seismic Laboratory.

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A recent study analyzed what would happen in the event of a 7.0 magnitude earthquake — and the results were alarming.

The Hayward Fault, part of the San Andreas Fault System, extends 74 miles across part of the San Francisco Bay Area.

(USGS)

Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) have simulated 50 different potential earthquakes to understand the real-world consequences of how powerful seismic events could occur on the Hayward Fault – while creating a database to better understand the impact of potential future earthquakes.

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The team said in a statement that a serious earthquake “could cause serious damage to such a densely populated area.”

The study charted the effects of ground motion intensity across the Gulf region and what shaking would look like in different scenarios — identifying vulnerable areas and potential threat areas before disaster strikes.

Ground motion simulation of a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault, an event that researchers say could cause widespread damage in this densely populated area.

(Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory – Earthquake simulation platform at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.)

The US Geological Survey said in a report called “High Wired Scenario” that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake beneath Oakland could kill up to 800 people and injure up to 18,000.

Given the destructive potential, the study determined how strong tremors are, how they vary depending on locations and the physical factors that control tremors – and the study aims to improve ground motion prediction and seismic risk analysis in the event of an earthquake.

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“We are interested in knowing what the ground motion of a typical magnitude 7 earthquake in the Bay Area would be, so we can work with engineers to ensure that infrastructure and buildings in the Bay Area can withstand this motion,” said author and LLNL scientist Arben Pitarka. “Thanks to this information, we can also begin preparations to retrofit some vulnerable structures.”

San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.

(Patrick Bliol/Image Alliance via Getty Images)

The USGS estimates a 14.3% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event occurring by 2034 and a 33% chance before 2043, making the Hayward Fault the most dangerous in the Bay Area.

Cities located near the fault include Oakland, Berkeley, Hayward, Fremont, San Leandro, Richmond, El Cerrito, and Milpitas, putting millions at risk; That’s why scientists collect data to prepare before a potentially catastrophic earthquake occurs.

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“Thanks to this new database, we can not only provide better estimates of the ground motion expected from this type of earthquake, but we can also identify areas susceptible to very strong tremors in the San Francisco Bay Area,” Petarca said.

A damaged car after an early morning earthquake struck Napa, California on August 24, 2014.

(Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)

Simulations show that directional pulsations and basin amplification can lead to particularly strong and long-lasting shaking, increasing risks to resilient buildings and in basin areas.

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In the future, the researchers aim to expand their simulations to model earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault, which can produce earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 or larger, with a proven history of generating destructive earthquakes.

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