After the Frere earthquake, there is a bigger political event coming

May 11, 2026 – 5:00 AM

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In politics – as in life – you can’t know how it’s going to feel until it happens. Obvious statement, perhaps. But Saturday night reminded us that it is one of the most important rules in politics. David Farley’s victory for One Nation in Farrer was widely expected. Yet it sounded like an explosion.

Illustration by Joe Pinke

On numerous occasions, Pauline Hanson has spoken of taking back “our country”. But in Freer’s case, in the wake of this shockingly decisive victory, the same phrase came out differently. As Rob Harris wrote, the result was “as it seemed in practice.” To its supporters, it no doubt now seemed like a prophecy. For many of us, it suddenly seemed dangerous – almost threatening.

Hanson’s victory was also a reason for changing the atmosphere in which the Albanian government’s budget is scheduled to arrive tomorrow.

Labor did not nominate a candidate in Frere. But in recent months Labor has tried to make an argument against One Nation: that while it promises to stand up for workers, it is in fact letting them down. On Saturday night, it became abundantly clear that those arguments made no difference. What are the benefits of politicians’ words to angry voters?

But actions may be a different story. Of course, we don’t know for sure what’s in the budget or how it all fits together. Let’s remember how much Labor enjoyed the last budget, surprising everyone with the tax cuts. Not long ago, the Prime Minister, speaking about rumors of changes in taxes on real estate investment, said: “I know there has been a bit of speculation, and it is all wrong.”

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This may be an exaggeration, but it is an important reminder that knowledge of the budget – and responsibility for it – rests with a handful of people. One reason why political decisions are so difficult and weighty is that a small group ultimately takes the risk – and bears the brunt of failure.

There is a danger because even these people have no idea what will happen next. The moment politics turns from rumor into reality, everything changes. The air is turning.

This moment has been anticipated for some time. If Labor is going to act more boldly, it will be this year. Remember, this is how Labor approached its first term. In the second year, I tried to do something difficult, regarding the third phase of the coalition’s tax cuts. If Labor changes taxes on property investment, the similarities will be striking: changing taxes, at the expense of the relatively wealthy, by breaking a promise in its second year. Prime Ministers grow into habits, and here we are again.

At the time, she wrote, Al-Albani suddenly seemed reassured. She wrote that it might be easier to stand up for something you believe in. Maybe we’ll see it all again. But we can’t know. If the government does what it promised not to do during the election campaign, attacks on the prime minister for lying are likely to be fierce. One of the reasons behind the unpredictability of politics is that it involves people, and it is not known how Albanians will deal with those attacks.

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But what we do know for sure is that he likes to turn “his enemies’ paths into dead ends” – and that he has demonstrated his skill at it. John Howard achieved this in 2004, turning attacks on his honesty into a source of strength when he asked voters, “Who do you trust?” By this he meant that good governance of the country is what really matters. Clearly, the Labor Party wants to do the same. Yes, he might do things he promised not to do. But that means he can still be counted on, because you can count on him to respond to what the moment needs in a broadly bipartisan way.

A display of anger in Freer will help Labor demonstrate that this is what is needed – that challenging injustice, inequality and the broken social contract is what is most urgent and important.

Labour’s cautious approach so far is part of what makes this week’s potential changes seem so bold: the comparison is tempting. But this caution would influence this decision as well. It means that the government is inexperienced in strong arguments, in the art of persuasion, and in announcing large and complex policies. Mistakes will be made. In fact, the government may have already made a mistake when it extended its changes to the capital gains tax deduction beyond property to include other assets, opening up a whole other front in the debate.

However, mistakes do not have to be fatal. Tuesday night is important, but it’s only the beginning. Budgets generally come in phases: there’s budget night, the 48 hours after that, the two weeks after that, and the legislative process. If the policies announced on Tuesday matter, and if they are largely turned into law, it will be a vindication of Jim Chalmers’ longstanding desire to do more in this area, his use of last year’s economic reform summit to expand the political sense of what was possible, the Prime Minister’s political judgment and the abilities of the government – especially the Albanians and Chalmers – to carry the case.

Perhaps most important, such changes would signal Labour’s understanding of the scale on which the federal government can operate. Its transition to Phase III was minimal by comparison, involving only income tax cuts – which are always temporary and quickly forgotten. This time, the Labor Party is restructuring the market and tackling taboos. This may represent a turning point, a reminder that governments can reshape countries in important ways: that the assumptions and agreements upon which a nation operates do not have to be eternal.

Freer may be more important than we realize. This may suggest that Labor is already too late: it did not act early enough to stem the fires of the far-right that are now burning. But Tuesday night and the weeks following could also be the most decisive events in the long run, proving that Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers can change not just their government’s approach, but the course of this country and its policies.

Sean Kelly is a regular columnist and former adviser to Prime Ministers Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.

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Sean Kelly is the author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, a regular columnist and a former advisor to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd. Connect via X.from our partners

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