Is the “earthquake swarm” in California over? What does it mean

What a Bay Area earthquake means and how to stay safe

Suresh Raman, MyShake lead at the UC Berkeley Seismic Laboratory, explains the earthquake and how early alerts give people precious seconds to react.

A “seismic swarm” erupted over the weekend in Southern California as hundreds of earthquakes rocked Imperial County — including a 4.7-magnitude quake on Mother’s Day. While numerous earthquakes may be worrying, two experts say swarms of earthquakes are not unusual in the region.

The Southern California Seismological Network reported that as of Monday morning, May 11, 411 earthquakes had been recorded in this swarm. The largest earthquake recorded in the swarm to date was a 4.7-magnitude quake near Brawley, a town north of the U.S.-Mexico border in California.

The City of Brawley reported that “no significant infrastructure damage was identified within the city” following the larger earthquake on May 10.

The Greek island of Santorini made headlines early last year because of thousands of earthquakes recorded nearby in a quake swarm, according to the Associated Press.

So, what does an earthquake swarm mean, and what should we expect? Here’s what you should know.

What is an earthquake swarm?

An earthquake swarm is a series of earthquakes of similar size, or a fairly narrow range of sizes, that occur within a small geographic area and usually over a short period of time — it could be a few days or last a few weeks, Sean Wilsey, a geology professor at the College of Southern Idaho, told the USA TODAY Network.

It differs from a “normal earthquake series,” where an earthquake occurs followed by aftershocks, according to Willsey.

“The Imperial Valley has seen dozens if not hundreds of this type of swarm over the century we have recorded,” Lucy Jones, a noted seismologist, said on social media on May 9.

The size of the tremors recorded in this swarm — quakes of magnitude 3 and about 4 seconds — is common in the region as well, Jones told the USA TODAY Network.

“If you asked geologists to put some labels on a map of where we might see clusters of earthquakes or a number of earthquakes, the Imperial Valley would be right near the top of the list,” Wilsey said.

While the swarm may be alarming to people who feel earthquakes, “from a scientific point of view, there is nothing strange about these earthquakes,” says Willsey.

When does the earthquake swarm end?

Jones confirmed that the swarm has begun to slow, pointing to the overall rate of recent earthquakes recorded in the swarm.

But how do we know when an earthquake swarm officially ends? We’ll have to wait and see how the squadron fares, Wilsey said.

“Sometimes you can’t say it’s over until it’s clear it’s over,” Wilsey said.

In a YouTube video about the swarm in Southern California, Wilsey said it was unlikely to trigger a larger earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. One of its reasons was the distance between the southern tip of the San Andreas Fault and the place where these earthquakes formed.

“Can I say for sure that this will not cause any activity in the San Andreas Fault?” Willsey said. “Absolutely not, but the chances are very low that this fairly small swarm, the largest of which is 4.7, will trigger something larger out there.”

“Every earthquake” makes another “more likely,” Jones said.

These triggered earthquakes are often smaller in size, and are also known as aftershocks, she said. However, this “triggering” ability dies with time since the earthquake and distance from the fault that caused it, according to Jones. Nor are swarms likely to be foreshocks, according to Jones, or when a smaller quake comes before a larger one.

Paris Barraza is a reporter covering Los Angeles and Southern California for the USA TODAY Network. Contact her at [email protected].

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