To understand an earthquake that’s about to explode, look at these eight areas

As the potential leadership race heated up, Makerfield MP Josh Simons announced he would stand down – triggering a by-election in the constituency and giving Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham the opportunity to put himself forward as a parliamentary candidate.

After derailing Burnham’s bid to become Labour’s candidate in last February’s by-election in Gorton and Denton, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will reportedly not seek to use his power and control of the party’s national executive committee to do so again.

To be frank, the hard-pressed Starmer is in no position to repeat the move, especially after losing the confidence of a large section of the parliamentary party – including big guns like former Health Secretary Wes Streeting (who has submitted a strongly worded resignation letter and has leadership ambitions of his own).

There have been rumors suggesting that the Labor MP for Manchester Rusholme, Afzal Khan, could stand down so that Burnham can contest the by-election in the hope of securing a return to Parliament and replacing Starmer as party leader (eventually being given the keys to 10 Downing Street).

However, Khan was quick to deny such reports, declaring that he had no intention of resigning. However, a by-election in Manchester Rusholme would have presented major challenges for Burnham.

It has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims in the country, with one in three people in the constituency falling into this religious category.

Labor continues to bleed support for British Muslims, with a recent Policy Exchange report revealing that nearly half of Muslims across the areas surveyed, such as Greater Manchester, would consider voting for the Greens to prevent a Labor candidate from winning their local area.

Although Burnham is a big name in the woods, we should not underestimate the power of the tactical anti-Labour vote among British Muslims – especially in the situation where Burnham ran with Manchester Rusholme against the Green Party candidate (after Khan, a Muslim Labor MP, stepped down).

While the polls suggested that Burnham could have prevented Labour’s disastrous performance in the Gorton and Denton by-elections (with the Muslim Vote campaign encouraging Muslim voters to support the Greens after Starmer banned him from being the party’s candidate), they also revealed the degree of anti-Labour sentiment among British Muslims living in the Greater Manchester area.

To understand the political earthquake that is about to explode, look at these eight wards

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Labor was beaten to third place in an area where it had not lost an election since 1931 – finishing behind second-placed Reform UK and the by-election victors, the Green Party.

Given the recent damage to the relationship between Labor and Muslim voters, winning Manchester Rusholme would have been a tall order for Burnham, and the Greens had a serious chance of winning the seat (particularly if George Galloway’s Labor stood aside, just as they did in the Gorton & Denton by-election).

However, Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election is not guaranteed. While some may consider it more “electorally favourable” for him because it is an overwhelmingly British seat and has a small number of Muslim voters, Labor is not the flavor of the month with the northern English working classes.

In fact, the party was dealt a devastating blow by the UK Reform Party in the Makerfield area in last week’s local elections. In Abram’s ward, Reform’s majority over Labor is 1,114 votes, while Hindley’s is 1,082 votes.

Across the eight relevant sections, Reform emerged victorious in each. Of course, turnout is likely to be much higher in high-stakes by-elections of national political importance – with many disillusioned, anti-Starmer Labor voters likely to turn out to support Burnham.

However, the UK Reform Party will throw in the kitchen sink – winning the seat and defeating Burnham would be a truly remarkable victory that would plunge Labor into a crisis of epic proportions and point us towards a healthy parliamentary majority for Nigel Farage’s party at the next general election.

The big question here is whether Makerfield’s white, working-class British voters can trust Burnham to transform Labor into a political institution that confronts the economic and cultural excesses of globalisation.

Whether it’s Makerfield or Manchester Rusholme, no seat is truly safe for Labour, with an anti-establishment, trans-ideological tsunami threatening to sweep this 126-year-old party into electoral oblivion.

Burnham may be talking a big game, but is he really the man who can save his party and fend off the rise of several populist rivals in an era of weakening traditional loyalties?

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