Study: 6.8 magnitude earthquake possible on Auckland fault line

The Mangatangi Fault near the Honua Range in South Auckland. Photo: Supplied

A new study shows that the Auckland fault line, now considered active, has the potential to cause a 6.8 magnitude earthquake if it ruptures.

In a media release, researchers from the University of Auckland said the quake triggered by the Mangatangi Fault Line – which runs alongside the Honua Mountain Range – would likely have “severe consequences” for people living in South Auckland and possibly central Auckland as well.

The study was published today in the New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics.

According to co-author Dr James Muirhead, the study highlights how little is known about Auckland’s seismic history.

The study was co-authored by Dr. James Muirhead. Photo: Supplied

The Mangatangi Fault Line is considered active because it has ruptured within the past 10,000 years. Any fault that moves within 125,000 is considered active.

“Clearly the level of risk in Auckland is not the same as Wellington or much of the South Island, but it may be much higher than the public and policymakers think – we need more factual information to know,” Dr Muirhead said.

Researchers say the continued expansion south of the city puts more people and infrastructure at risk – given its proximity to the fault line.

Although the fault may not erupt for tens of thousands of years, it remains an active fault “with the potential to generate a large earthquake in an area where you wouldn’t expect one,” lead author Hannah Martin said.

Lead author Hannah Martin. Photo: Supplied

Although people don’t usually feel them, earthquakes happen in Auckland every year, Muirhead said.

He and two other authors of the study continue to research fault lines in Oakland to determine how active they are.

They use advanced mapping, ground-penetrating radar and trenching, according to the media release.

One of the researchers, Dr. Jennifer Eccles, said: “It is always better to plan based on evidence rather than rely on our best hopes or worst fears.”

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