High Vp/Vs in situ before earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing

Seismic risk management in geopower development requires immediate assessment of fault instability. However, monitoring the pore pressure change during fluid injection in real time remains a challenge. Here, we present a high-resolution (~150 m and ~2 days), non-sectional strategy that tracks the seismic velocity ratio (Vp/Vs) as a proxy for the co-evolution of pore pressure with induced earthquake clusters. Applying this strategy to the southern Sichuan Basin, China, we observe a distinct ~4% rise in in situ Vp/Vs that precedes M>3 hydraulic fracturing-triggered earthquakes by several days of seismic quiescence. This quiescence reveals a prolonged propagation phase, during which the injected fluids gradually condition the rupture zones by raising pore pressures to critical levels. This preparation phase provides a valuable window of time for operational intervention, providing more precise timing of risk mitigation than traditional traffic light protocols. Our results suggest a viable strategy for near-real-time seismic risk assessment in diverse fluid-rich environments prone to induced or natural earthquakes.

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