Opening new frontiers in earthquake preparation: New seafloor data reveals ‘locked state’ volatility

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Researchers from the Institute of Industrial Science at the University of Tokyo analyzed seafloor displacement data in the Nankai Basin and discovered previously unknown differences in the locking strength between tectonic plates.

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Credit: Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo

Tokyo, Japan – Off the southern coast of Japan, the Philippine Sea plate lies beneath the Japanese mainland. Locked tectonic plates threaten to unleash a massive catastrophic earthquake, likely to occur within the next few decades. Given the potential devastation that a large earthquake can cause, continued development in predictive technology must be pursued. However, predicting unexpected seafloor movement requires innovative thinking.

Now, new research provides unprecedented insight into the movement of the Nankai Trough, promoting a better understanding of future earthquakes. In a study scheduled to be published in the journal Earth, Planets and Space, researchers at the Institute of Industrial Science at the University of Tokyo analyzed data collected between 2013 and 2023 by the Seafloor Geodetic Observing Array (SGO-A), operated by the Japan Coast Guard.

Previously, monitoring plate boundary conditions in high-risk subduction zones, such as the Nankai Basin, relied on sparse data sets that provide temporally averaged “snapshots” of frictional conditions at plate boundaries. However, SGO-A, with a monitoring frequency of about four times per year, allows unprecedented precision in monitoring the subduction zone.

According to lead author Yusuke Yokota, “With this new dataset, using both horizontal and vertical displacement data, we have successfully determined temporal variations of the locking state in the Nankai Basin. This reveals regions of tectonic plates that have been locked for long periods of time, as well as changes in locking strength.”

Locking plates in subduction zones, preventing small earthquakes that relieve pressure, can lead to a particularly high risk of strong earthquakes, which explains why having this information is important. The high-resolution identification and tracking capabilities demonstrated in this study, including geographic and temporal distribution metrics, will be of great value for disaster preparedness and mitigation.

For example, variation in locking strength was found especially in the shallow parts of the plate boundaries. These differences can affect the strength and magnitude of any earthquakes originating from these areas.

“A better understanding of the temporal variations of the lock will not only enhance the seismic understanding of the Nankai Basin, but will also play an important role in the prevention of earthquake disasters,” explains Tadashi Ishikawa, lead researcher. “However, because the dataset covers only one decade, continued monitoring of SGO-A could reveal more patterns of variation and aid in future prevention efforts.”

The results of this study represent a new frontier in preparation efforts for large catastrophic earthquakes. Implementing similar geodetic monitoring arrays in other high-risk areas, such as the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the Peru-Chile Trench, could significantly improve monitoring of major seismic threats around the world.

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The article, “Nodal seafloor geodesy reveals persistently closed zones and temporal variations in slip deficit rate along the Nankai Basin,” was published in the journal Earth, Planets, and Space at DOI: 10.1186/s40623-026-02472-1.

About the Institute of Industrial Science at the University of Tokyo

The University of Tokyo Institute of Industrial Science (UTokyo-IIS) is one of the largest university-affiliated research institutes in Japan. UTokyo-IIS consists of more than 120 research laboratories – each headed by a faculty member – and has more than 1,200 members (about 400 staff and 800 students) actively engaged in education and research. Its activities cover almost all areas of engineering. Since its founding in 1949, UTokyo-IIS has worked to bridge the vast gaps that exist between academic disciplines and real-world applications.

magazine

Terrestrial planets and space

Article title

Nodal seafloor geodesy reveals persistently closed zones and temporal variations in the slip deficit rate along the Nankai Basin.

Date the article was published

3-Jun-2026

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