Could another earthquake occur in the Gulf? Here are the aftershock forecasts

PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. (Reuters) – A rare 6.1 magnitude earthquake near western Cuba that was felt in parts of Florida on Monday could be followed by aftershocks in the coming days and weeks, the US Geological Survey (USGS) said.

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The quake occurred around 2 p.m. Monday about 65 miles west-northwest of Mantua, Cuba, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Shocking reports came in from several parts of Florida, including South Florida, Southwest Florida, Tampa Bay, Orlando, Jacksonville and parts of the Panhandle.

The National Tsunami Warning Center said there was no tsunami threat in Florida or the Gulf Coast.

While the main quake has passed, the USGS says aftershocks are still possible near the source area west of Cuba. If it is strong enough, another tremor will likely be felt again in South Florida, especially in high-rise buildings.

According to the latest USGS forecast, there is a 98% chance that at least one aftershock of magnitude 3 or greater will occur within the next seven days. The chance of at least one aftershock of magnitude 4 or greater is 67%, while the chance of at least one aftershock of magnitude 5 or greater is 15%.

Over the next 30 days, USGS forecasts show a 99% chance of at least one aftershock of magnitude 3 or greater, a 77% chance of at least one aftershock of magnitude 4 or greater, and a 22% chance of at least one aftershock of magnitude 5 or greater.

The chance of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater occurring within the next month is 3%. The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater is still less than 1%.

These higher 30-day probabilities do not mean that the aftershock sequence is expected to get worse. In general, aftershock activity tends to decrease over time, but longer time periods naturally carry higher probabilities because there is more time for aftershocks to occur.

The US Geological Survey says aftershock forecasts are not earthquake forecasts. Scientists cannot predict the exact time, location, or size of the next earthquake. Instead, the agency uses statistical models based on sequences of previous aftershocks and updates forecasts when new earthquakes are detected.

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