Experts warn that the probability of a huge earthquake hitting California is now at a “historic level.”

Scientists warn that an earthquake could be headed to California, where recent research suggests that seismic stress in two major fault lines is the highest ever recorded in the past 1,000 years.

The new study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, does not predict when the earthquake will occur. But it found that the San Andreas and southern San Jacinto faults now carry greater pent-up stress than at any time in the past millennium — a condition the authors describe as “critically loaded.”

The last California earthquake of a similar scale was the 7.9 magnitude San Francisco earthquake on April 18, 1906, which killed about 3,000 people and destroyed much of the Bay Area.

But while that disaster released huge amounts of energy, it did so in the northern San Andreas Fault. The southern rift systems examined in the new study were not affected.

Because earthquakes in one part of the fault network do not relieve stress elsewhere, researchers say these southern parts have continued to build up stress for decades — and in some places for centuries.

What the experts found

Geologists, led by Lillian Burkhard at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, have used computer simulations of large earthquake activity over the past 1,000 years to estimate how adjacent parts of the Earth will interact with each other over time.

Their model revealed that stress levels in California have now reached a high point, increasing the likelihood of an earthquake. The two fault systems are now loaded under similar pressure, making them more vulnerable to impacting each other.

The model also identifies an intersection called the Cajon Corridor, northeast of Los Angeles near San Bernardino, where the two fault systems meet. Burkhard’s team describes it as an “earthquake gate” that decides whether rupture stops at one fault or jumps across both.

The model suggests that what opens that gate is the convergence of the stress on the two faults, both of which are now loaded to similar levels.

A rupture that crossed the two rifts would be much larger and more destructive than a rupture limited to a single fault, threatening Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and the Coachella Valley, which are among the most densely populated areas in the United States.

Cajon Pass is an intersection between the San Bernardino Mountains (above) and San Gabriel, California – Credit: Getty

Modern building codes mean that cities must withstand strong tremors much better than they did in 1906. But a combined rupture could still be catastrophic.

What do other experts say?

Bill McGuire – emeritus professor of geophysical and climate risk at University College London, who was not involved in the research – told BBC Science Focus that large earthquakes “are now set to hit both northern (San Francisco and Bay Area) and southern (Los Angeles) California”, and welcomed new insights into the risks.

“The idea that such an intersection at the Cajon Corridor acts as a ‘seismic gate’ that controls the rupture of one or more faults during an earthquake is fascinating, and has important implications for constructing future earthquake scenarios,” he said.

“Also important, in terms of the timing of a future ‘big event’ in the Los Angeles area, is the finding that stress levels on these faults have reached historic highs.”

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