Scientists warn that the San Andreas Fault in California is headed toward a major earthquake

The Cajon Corridor east of Los Angeles appears ripe for an earthquake. Photo: MP Rail Photography // Facebook

The southern San Andreas Fault has reached stress levels not seen in at least 1,000 years, according to new research that suggests the fault is ready for a major earthquake. Scientists at the University of Hawaii have discovered a stretch near Los Angeles that is in a “critical loading state” after going more than 160 years without a major rupture.

The area of ​​concern is around Cajon Pass, where Interstate 15 crosses the Transverse Mountain Range from Riverside to the Mojave Desert. The pass is where the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults meet, making it a tectonically active area prone to large earthquakes.

The last major earthquake in the region was in 1857 in Fort Tejon, and its magnitude was estimated at 7.9 on the Richter scale. Before that, a large earthquake of magnitude 7.5 occurred in 1812. The region has experienced at least 36 earthquakes of magnitude 6.4 or greater in the past millennium. But scientists say records show that large ruptures on this stretch of fault occur every 100 years or so. It has been more than 160 years since the last large-scale earthquake, and models confirm that the observed stress is unprecedented.

Researchers are careful not to use alarming language. But at the same time they are very clear in their conclusion that the next time the plates slide east of Los Angeles, it could be catastrophic.

“This is not a prediction of when an earthquake will occur,” said Lillian Burkhard, lead author of the study. “What we can say is that the system is under extreme stress, and physics-based models like this one give us a clearer picture of the range of scenarios we need to be prepared for.”

The authors say this information could help cities plan infrastructure, prepare emergency protocols, and adapt building codes.

When a large earthquake occurs, the chances that it will trigger a massive tsunami are relatively low. Not only is the fault crossing 60 miles of ocean, but it is a strike-slip fault, meaning the two plates are sliding side by side. Although this type of fault can produce tsunamis, tectonic boundaries where one plate dips beneath another are more conducive to generating large waves.

The state of California has recorded only one earthquake above seven on the Richter scale in the twenty-first century. In 2019, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck the Ridgecrest area in the Mojave Desert.

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