New earthquake study finds San Andreas fault poised for major quake • Long Beach Post News

This article was originally published by LAist on June 23.

An earthquake was expected along the “highly stressed” San Andreas and San Jacinto faults in Southern California, a new study says.

As pressure builds up on the fault over centuries, it increases the stress that must be released in an earthquake. In the study, scientists found that the San Andreas and San Jacinto Fault are under greater pressure than at any time in the past 1,000 years, meaning a massive earthquake could be on the way.

“It’s been a long time since the southern San Andreas or San Jacinto have had a major earthquake, and we’ve built up a lot of stress,” said Kate Sharer, study co-author and USGS geologist.

Using geological evidence, including tree ring records and sediment samples, a team of scientists created a computer model that shows how stress builds along faults over time. They then ran the model up to the present day to estimate how much pressure is now building up under our area. They found that stress has been gradually increasing since the last major earthquake in 1857, one of the largest seismic events recorded in California.

“The idea that all those parts of the fault could contain enough stress for an imminent future earthquake was already there,” said Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and a professor at the University of Washington, who was not involved in the study. “this [study] He puts it on a more quantitative and rigorous scientific basis.

One interesting area is Cajon Pass, the narrow gorge between the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains.

“The Cajon Corridor could serve as a ‘seismic gateway,’ like a junction that stops or transports large faults between the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults depending on stress conditions,” said Lillian Burkhard, lead author of the study and a research affiliate at the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Science.

The corridor is where a large earthquake can move from one fault system to another, Burkhard said. It could allow the rupture to spread farther across Southern California and affect millions of people across the Coachella Valley and San Bernardino County.

Going forward, Burkhard hopes to study other earthquake-prone regions, where many fault systems interact and create hazards that are still difficult to predict.

Scientists agree that Southern California will experience another major earthquake. The challenge is that no one knows exactly when.

“It could happen today, or tomorrow, or in 10 years, or in 30 years,” said Ahmed El-Banna, director of the California Statewide Earthquake Center and a professor at the University of Southern California who was not involved in the study. “On geological time scales, these are all very short.”

So it’s a matter of when, not if.

“We should certainly expect large earthquakes in our lifetime,” Scharer said.

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