Venezuela earthquake response increases risk of political unrest and business disruption

Although the earthquakes that struck Venezuela on June 24 created an immediate humanitarian emergency, the government’s response is likely to be more important in the long term. Early indications are that the recovery effort is becoming a test of state competence and political legitimacy that could reshape Venezuela’s domestic political environment for months, if not years, to come. The two earthquakes left thousands dead and tens of thousands displaced, especially in La Guaira State, exhausting limited local recovery resources even with a rapid and sustained global humanitarian response.

Political fund

The earthquakes struck Venezuela at a moment of remarkable political fragility. Although Interim President Delcy Rodriguez entered office with limited political capital following the rapid ouster of President Nicolas Maduro by the United States, the government’s increasingly ineffective response to disasters is now concentrating existing grievances around one very clear failure in governance. While most Venezuelans are currently engaged in either the daily struggle to survive in the aftermath of the earthquake or the urgent need to help those affected, dissatisfaction with the administration is likely to grow. Throughout La Guaira state, Venezuelans have pointed to the remarkable solidarity shown since the earthquakes, with citizens at home and abroad rallying in support wherever they can. This community-led response stands in sharp contrast to what many see as the government’s lackluster handling of the crisis.

Government failures

Early shortcomings in the government’s efforts to recover from the earthquake are likely to deepen the loss of public confidence and reinforce doubts about its ability to govern. The crisis has exposed the continuing breakdown of Venezuela’s social contract, as the state struggles to protect and assist citizens during a national emergency. This failure reflects the long-term weakness of institutions after more than a quarter century of corruption, mismanagement, and chronic underinvestment. Documented failures of the government response in the immediate aftermath of earthquakes include:

Understaffing and under-resourcing in hospitals, medical centers and morgues;

Weak coordination of humanitarian relief operations and aid distribution; and

Corruption is widespread among security officials, including the police and armed forces, with documented reports of individuals:

Soliciting bribes to allow volunteers access to disaster sites; Requesting payments for transporting rescue equipment; Blackmailing families seeking access to morgues; Refusal to assist in rescue and resuscitation operations; The homes and property of the victims were looted. Political implications

Reliable international polls show that nearly 65% ​​of Venezuelans disapprove of the government’s handling of the current crisis, with 60% of respondents describing the authorities’ response as either bad or very bad. More specifically, the same polls show that Venezuelans overwhelmingly disapprove of the National Assembly, the army, Rodriguez, and the police force, all by similarly wide margins.

For now, the political opposition, led by Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado of Panama, has refrained from calling for street protests or other public demonstrations, aware of the country’s urgent needs and little political vision for mobilization while recovery efforts are still underway. If Machado succeeds in returning from Panama, she will likely re-emerge as a central figure around which political opposition to Rodriguez will rally.

Beyond opinion polls and opposition activism, the growing willingness among ordinary Venezuelans to publicly criticize the government suggests that the climate of fear that has long constrained political opposition is beginning to weaken. Reports and videos on social media clearly underscore the depth of anti-government sentiment among many residents of Caracas and the state of La Guaira and, more importantly, indicate that they are no longer afraid to publicly express such criticisms.

The dilemma for Washington

The government’s deteriorating political situation is likely to create difficult policy choices for Washington, as continued support for Rodriguez becomes difficult to reconcile with growing public discontent and the potential for widespread unrest. The Trump administration’s decision to remove Maduro from power and support Rodriguez was based in part on the assumption that her government would provide a more stable and legitimate alternative. The government’s ineffective response to the earthquake is putting this assumption under increasing pressure, with public frustration extending beyond Rodriguez to its main international backer.

While many Venezuelans acknowledge the humanitarian aid provided by Washington, reports indicate growing dissatisfaction with the United States’ continued control of oil revenue funds and the perception that it has not done enough to push Rodriguez toward a more comprehensive recovery response.

If protest activity in Venezuela increases over the coming months, the Trump administration may begin to view Rodriguez as much as a stabilization partner as a political liability. If the US response to Tehran’s violent crackdown on January 2026 protests across Iran is any guide, Trump is unlikely to tolerate any attempt by Rodriguez to use similar repressive tactics in the event of widespread protests in Venezuela.

US pressure on Rodriguez to exercise restraint could in turn embolden protesters by reinforcing perceptions that the government has fewer options for repression than in previous years. As a result, if sustained protests occur, the United States will likely face a range of political dilemmas about whether to support the protesters, the political opposition, Rodriguez and her administration, or some combination of the three.

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