Rural areas may suffer disproportionately from earthquakes

Site Significance: Seismologists who study historical casualty estimates after major earthquakes suggest that future rescue efforts should look for rural casualties.

Written by Melissa L Weber, MA (Melwriter)

Quote: Weber, M, 2020, Rural Areas May Suffer Disproportionately from Earthquakes, Tumble, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.113

In the aftermath of the earthquake, rescue efforts based on preliminary statistics of human casualties – dead and injured – usually focus on urban areas, mainly because the population density is highest. But a recent analysis indicates that in some countries, more victims are falling in rural areas. Scientists studying casualty estimates hope to encourage officials to send rescue workers to rural areas based on forecasts of casualties in the aftermath of the earthquake.

There are a number of reasons for considering a disaster recovery strategy, says Max Weiss, a seismologist and professor emeritus at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, author of the analysis in Seismology Research Letters (SRL). First, in many areas, rural residents suffer more than urban centers because they usually wait longer for rescuers to arrive, and often experience more building collapse than cities. Second, the casualties in the aftermath of an earthquake are often underestimated in rural areas in part due to damage to infrastructure and communications. This slows rescue groups from dispatching personnel and equipment. For any saving effort, time matters. People will rarely live longer than five to six days if they are trapped in a collapsed building following an earthquake (Macintyre et al., 2006).

Where are the losses?

Wyss examined historical earthquake data using victim models generated by QLARM (Earthquake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation). This modeling tool uses global population and building data to calculate losses such as building damage, injuries, and fatalities from strong vibration during earthquakes. They verified that predictions using QLARM algorithms provided accurate estimates of true infections.

Then Weiss and his team studied data from 53 anticipated future earthquakes in 17 countries. He warns that the list of future earthquakes is biased against what he and his colleagues consider “potential earthquakes.” They calculated theoretical losses in rural areas, which were defined as communities of fewer than 35,000 people. Eight countries with earthquakes classified as large and fatal were modeled to have an 85% rural injury rate, meaning that only 15% of the fatalities were located in cities. There were only a few cities near these events, while thousands of villages were located near the ruptures.

The majority of earthquake victims are located in rural areas. The area outside Kathmandu, Nepal is vulnerable to damage in the event of an earthquake. Credit: Wonderlane (CC BY 2.0)

Wyss says that rural people may need support first, because people may live and work in structures that are not properly reinforced. Roger J. Pelham is a research scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder Environmental Science Research Collaborative Institute. The problem, Pelham says, is the building construction, not whether the buildings are in rural or urban areas. Usually industrialized nations experience fewer collapses due to law enforcement.

“In developing countries, symbols may exist, but corruption, ignorance or poverty can be circumvented, especially away from the big cities,” Pelham says. For example, in areas that struggle to provide affordable housing, shortcuts can be taken in construction, which may lead to more damage.

Location is important

Pelham and Wyss agree that while the analysis provides a compelling reason to immediately dispatch rescue teams to rural areas, countries and earthquakes should be assessed individually. It is clear that the location of the earthquake in relation to a large population density or an earthquake under a megacity will cause more damage in the urban area. For example, Wyss is currently working on a study focusing on eight hypothetical earthquakes in Colombia. The model Wyss uses in this upcoming study shows the opposite of its previous analysis – the new analysis indicates that Colombians will need help in predominantly urban areas.

QLARM models for Colombia indicate that most deaths will occur in urban areas. Credit: Public Domain

And people in rural areas usually suffer the most [because they wait longer for help]”But for each country, you need to consider their situation, the magnitude of the anticipated earthquakes and the estimated casualty numbers in both urban and rural areas,” Wyss says.

Pay attention to the estimates

Wyss says the most important and effective way to save people is for local governments and rescue organizations to take into account the damage estimates provided by seismologists immediately after the earthquake. For example, in cooperation with the Swiss Seismological Service, QLARM provides earthquake alerts within approximately 30 minutes of potentially destructive earthquakes around the world. Other tools are in use by many international and national organizations to provide estimates of losses following earthquakes.

He wants to encourage reporters to consider giving ratings from QLARM and PAGER, the USGS alert system. PAGER (Global Earthquake Real-Time Assessment for Response) is an automated system that provides estimates of the impact intensity of large earthquakes around the world. These estimates provide information to first responders and government officials about the potential scale of the disaster. For example, if local officials report that only a few people have been infected, but QLARM indicates that as many as 1,000 people may be infected, rescue workers can search other areas for casualties. Raising awareness of potential casualties may encourage more aggressive rescue measures for victims throughout the affected area.

USGS PAGER ESTIMATES OF Fatalities and Economic Losses on the June 23, 2020 Oaxaca, Mexico earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4. Credit: USGS, Public Domain

For large earthquakes, their magnitude may not be immediately known, and the depth of the rupture is often not well known, which also makes a difference.

“After about six minutes, I get an estimate and a magnitude,” says Weiss. “If the reported volume was 7.5 with the number of casualties estimated at 30,000, but local experts thought it was actually 8 degrees, I can recalculate the estimate and say that we expect an average of 60,000 casualties. In this case, the uncertainty would be 30,000 people.” .

Wyss says the most important first step after the earthquake is to call rescue workers to the scene. Exaggeration of victims should not be a failure; The goal should be to save more victims. If the scientific community estimated there were thousands of casualties, and local city officials reported few casualties, the question might become: Where are the injured? He says maybe in rural areas.

Are you worried about earthquake risk? Check it out at Temblor.

Further reading

Pelham, R. (2019) Deepening Earthquake Hazards in South Asia: Engineering versus Human Nature, Chapter 5, 103-141, in Earthquake Hazards, Hazards and Disasters, Ed M. Wes, Elsevier 2019

Pelham R., and F. Gore (2013), Buildings as Weapons of Mass Destruction: Earthquake Hazards in South Asia, Science, 341, 618-619

Macintyre, AG, Barbera, JA, & Smith ER (2006). Surviving the Collapsed Temple Trap after an Earthquake: A “Rescue Time” Analysis. Pre-hospital and disaster medicine, 21 (1), 4.

Max Weiss, (2018) Rural people suffer more from great earthquakes, will be higher. Precision. Let. Volume 89, Issue 6 November / December 2018

Wyss, Max (2017) Commentary: Report Estimated Death Toll From Earthquake To Save Lives, Nature Vol 545 11 May 2017

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