More than half of the people who have left San Francisco say they will likely return, in a small sample of event logs

The past few months have been filled with pictures of U-Haul trucks on social media and stories like this of falling rents due to the mass exodus from San Francisco. Regardless of the apparent trend that epidemics and telecommuting options tend to cause some people to flee congested cities, we will likely take the long view that the things that have made San Francisco a desirable place for many for decades have not disappeared or are likely to return in Good time. Hence, not all of the fugitives necessarily left forever.

Also, as in other big cities, people leaving are making way for new blood, and housing markets are spawning themselves except for the total earthquake / fire / nuclear Armageddon.

This is the position The Chronicle now takes in following multiple stories out there and elsewhere that suggest otherwise. (SFGate also had a so-called “exit correspondence” that says it has been covering San Franciscan foreign immigration for two years, and announced in June that it will leave itself.) The newspaper says it has called for stories from Gulf residents fleeing to less expensive or less dense places, and “more than half” of the 20 people who wrote indicated that they are likely to return here after the end of the epidemic.

Is the current mass migration much larger than the usual summer influx? And of what size? It’s hard to say.

“Accurate information about population change in the Gulf region may not be available until after the release of the 2020 census data,” Chronicle says. But more than fifty people responded [to our call for move-out stories]… and reports from real estate and transportation companies indicate a transformational shift, even if it is not possible to measure it accurately. “

The reasons people cite for the commute are very familiar to anyone between the ages of 23 and 45 who lives in a city: There’s a new kid to worry about, and this isn’t a city built for kids; There is an opportunity to work remotely and live with your parents for a period of time to save on rent (or you are bankrupt, unemployed and needing to return to live); Or you’ve just reached the point where your tiny apartment isn’t cut short and the pandemic has pushed you to the realization that there are other places you can live that have more space.

The pandemic has also speeded up people’s previously discussed plans to leave – for child-related reasons, or other reasons – because if you’re going to leave at some point anyway, and you’ve been working remotely anyway, why do you keep paying the SF rent while you wait for restaurants. Bars, theaters and museums to reopen? As Michelle Lay, a 16-year-old resident of Mission District, tells Chron, “All the things we love about town are now gone.”

There will always be reasons to love San Francisco and reasons to complain about what you became or how you were better off. This is the nature of the city. People were declaring New York dead too, then Jerry Seinfeld wrote an editorial that he said were all lies, and people cheered. (Then people asked Jerry to run out on Twitter too.)

But no, some will say. This time is different. It is a pandemic. And San Francisco has sucked for years and is full of needles, homeless people, and tech!

What if a (slight) tech migration, some rental stability and a new generation of dreamers in their twenties moved and made San Francisco more diverse, kind, and vibrant than it has been in years? Sure your co-worker or friend might have returned from college to St. Louis and says the food is great there too. But San Francisco will still be such a gorgeous, problematic and moody gem with great seafood and cocktails, and these kinds of places are hard to kill.

Related: The report shows a record increase in property listings in San Francisco as people continue to move to more affordable cities

Photo: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

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