Can cows predict earthquakes? Animal Monitoring as an Early Warning System – The World

It has always been suggested that animals often behave differently than usual shortly before an earthquake. According to reports, some wild animals leave their sleeping and nesting places right before strong earthquakes, and pets such as dogs become especially restless. Until recently, however, these observations were not based on scientific studies. Moreover, it cannot be excluded that changes in behavior are not caused by other factors. Can animals really “predict” earthquakes?

Researchers from the German Max Planck Institute (MPI) for behavioral biology in Konstanz / Radolfzel and the Center for the Advanced Study of Group Behavior at the University of Konstanz investigated exactly this. In an area of ​​northern Italy where earthquakes are especially common, six cows, five sheep and two dogs are equipped with small sensors. With the help of these sensors, researchers were able to measure whether animals could actually detect early signs of earthquakes. They were observed over a period of several months, before and during a series of numerous earthquakes. Measurement data from the sensors provides information about animal movements or body position, for example.

How do cows, dogs and sheep sense the upcoming earthquakes

The research results were able to confirm the long-running assumption: “Cows become less active shortly before the earthquake strikes, and actually freeze. And when dogs and sheep see this, they then become tense and upset,” says Martin Wickelski, head of research for the MPI Project . In this sense, animals interact with each other as much as they do with environmental stimuli.

“It’s a bit like a stock market crash, and then it goes up. With the acceleration patterns we can see from the energy consumption of the animals that they are changing their behavior before an earthquake.” The datasets were compared with the animals’ normal behavior and daily activity. If animals are observed to become particularly active in the middle of the day, when they are usually somewhat inactive, this may be an indication that an earthquake is about to occur.

How animals “sense” the upcoming earthquakes has not been conclusively researched. “It is very likely, however, that the pressure of the plates that subsequently come apart during an earthquake will be so great shortly before a major earthquake that the rock minerals are released into the air,” Vickelsky says. Animals should be able to perceive the ionization of air with their fur. It is also possible for animals to smell the gases emitted from the quartz crystals before an earthquake strikes. “If the epicenter was directly below the animal pens, the advance warning time would be about 15 hours. If the epicenter was about 15 kilometers away, it would be about two hours,” explains Wickelski. According to Wikilsky, these time periods roughly correspond to the speed at which rock particles propagate through the air.

Monitoring data as an early warning system for earthquakes

Currently, animal monitoring data is sent directly to researchers in Constance via an internet-connected receiver at the site. Almost in real time – roughly every three minutes – researchers receive new data on animal behavior.

However, in order to actually use the monitoring data to predict earthquakes, the researchers plan to observe more animals over longer time periods and in different earthquake zones around the world. The ICARUS global monitoring system will be used on the International Space Station (ISS) for this purpose. It is scheduled to begin its scientific operations in a few weeks. Since the payload available on the International Space Station (ISS), according to Wikelski, is not yet sufficient, the data cannot be transmitted to the satellite in real time. To enable forecasting of future natural disasters with the help of animal monitoring data, capabilities are now being expanded.

This is a translation by Mark Newton of an original article that first appeared on the German-language RESET website.

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