A study has warned that Embarcadero, in the sixth, could be devastated by earthquakes and rising sea levels.

Embarcadero faces serious threats, with region-wide repercussions from both earthquakes that could undermine the city seawall and a rise in bay waters that could submerge downtown streets and drown BART and Muni tunnels, according to a comprehensive new study from the Port of San Francisco.

The 82-page report says that a tremor on the scale of the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989 could displace the sea wall beneath Embarcadero and liquefy portions of soil in place. Not only will this damage the busy docks and historic buildings on the waterfront, but the utility and transit lines that affect the entire city. The danger is particularly high in the area around the Ferry Building, but parts of Fisherman’s Wharf are also at risk.

The impact of sea level rise will also be widespread, but not in the near future. The study released an increase in the average daily tide by two feet, which is what some scientific forecasts expect as soon as 2050, would lead to water leakage into the city center blocks and make the subway tunnel below Market Street vulnerable to flooding in a major storm. Friday warns.

The analysis follows the $ 425 million bond for seismic upgrades to Embarcadero approved by voters in 2018. Its results will be used to prepare a list of recommended projects to strengthen the most vulnerable areas along the sea wall, which were established between 1878 and 1921 and will continue. 4.8 Kilometers from Mission Creek to Pier 45.

A complete change of Embarcadero, which is preparing for sea level rise as well as earthquakes, could cost over $ 5 billion and take decades to complete.

“We need to make decisions now that we can feel good about in the future,” said Lindy Lowe, Director of Resilience at Port. “The priorities in this first round are safety of lives and minimizing risks.”

The results are in line with years of warnings that large earthquakes can cause permanent damage to the seawall, which consists of a raw rock embankment topped with concrete. Likewise, there are many projections that the daily tides could seep through the Embarcadero as sea levels rise in the coming decades due to climate change.

What is new is a focus on exactly what could happen – identifying the exact mix of soil behind the seawall, which was built to extend San Francisco’s northeast waterfront into the bay.

“Understanding what is under the surface of (Embarcadero) is really essential,” said Stephen Reel, director of the port study project. “It’s a complicated puzzle.”

To gather the information, engineers on the consulting team led by Arcadis and CH2M drilled down to 215 feet to obtain soil samples, which were either visually examined or sent to the lab. Other holes were made by pushing small cones beyond the Embarcadero surface. There were 90 boring ones in total.

The study found that the soil south of the Gulf Bridge to where the seawall ends at Mission Creek is more stable than expected. The landfill is located on solid sand and ground rocks relatively close to the surface.

Not so in the Ferry Building area: bedrock is 240 feet below the water’s surface, topped with a dense sprinkle of creek mud. This caused the seawall extending from Folsom Street almost north to Broadway to stabilize and become less stable.

The biggest surprise was the fragility of the sidewalks beneath the old restaurant buildings on Taylor Street between Jefferson Street and Pier 45 in Fisherman’s Wharf. It turns out that loose sand falls underneath the fill – creating the possibility of what Reel called “rolling ski”, as the piers and the structures above them swing back and forth.

All this means that from the Gulf Bridge to the north, the seawall and soil behind it may settle in certain circumstances with disastrous results. An earthquake similar to Pluma Prieta, but with an earthquake center only 10 miles away instead of 60 miles as it was at the time, it could be enough to destabilize the waterfront.

“It wouldn’t take more than the earthquake of 1989 for Embarcadero to liquidate,” Riel said.

The challenge of rising sea levels is to prepare for the distant future, rather than facing a natural disaster that could happen at any time.

If no proactive steps are taken, the study expects diffuse effects to start affecting Embarcadero between 2050 and 2080, depending on the pace of change. Even the combination of a severe storm and 1.1 feet in sea level – a scenario that some projections say could take only 15 years – could submerge the foot of Market Street and extend far beyond the waves now sweeping the shore during the extra high “tides” of Winter is what the report calls “nuisance floods”.

Risks on Embarcadero

The “Multiple Hazard Assessment” of the Northern Waterfront prepared for the Port of San Francisco goes into comprehensive detail on what would happen along the Embarcadero without seismic upgrades and an adaptive approach to sea level rise. Among the results of the study:

The study found that a large earthquake “will cause great stability and lateral spread” along the sea wall. The filled soil on the inner side of the sea wall can suddenly sink by as much as a foot, causing massive damage to neighboring buildings, underground facilities, and Muni crossing lines.

Public agencies see the ferry service as essential to evacuate people after a major earthquake. But first, people must access water – and Embarcadero’s devastating crossing could be “the weak link in the earthquake,” the report warns. “Without access, operating marine assets and operations cannot function.”

An earthquake of the magnitude of the 1906 earthquake could cause extensive damage to Embarcadero’s historic sidewalks and palisade buildings which “reconstruction or repair may not be appropriate or possible”.

Without much preemptive action, the study estimates that the port could suffer $ 1.5 billion in earthquake-related damage by 2100. The long-term impact of high tides could be more costly – “between $ 4.5 billion and $ 29 billion,” by 2100, depending on On the pace of change.

If the sea level rises by 2.2 feet and there is a very high tide, city pipelines could suffer long-term damage: “Large floodwaters can enter through fishing ponds and manholes … Increased salinity in the wastewater system may affect plant operations Treatment and increased rates of erosion of wastewater infrastructure.

The report warns that “underground transportation systems, such as BART and a large portion of Muni light railways, are highly vulnerable to floods”. A sea level rise of more than one foot could flood Market Street Subway, closing access to the Transit outside Embarcadero. “The cascading effects of severe and frequent disruptions to mobility, especially transit flights, may … threaten regional economic activity.”

The full report will be available at www.sfportresilience.com

Port officials say the double threat of earthquakes and climate change is why work is now underway to plan for changes that could well exceed the $ 425 million that voters have appropriated.

“Our policy is that we are the custodian of Embarcadero,” said Eileen Forbes, Port Executive Director. “We intend to preserve and protect the waterfront for as long as possible.”

The new study will be presented to the City Port Commission on Tuesday. A set of recommended projects for the first set of promotions will be prepared this winter, with final selection in the spring.

The port schedule calls for design and environmental work to continue until 2024, when construction begins.

John King is the San Francisco Chronicle urban design critic. Email: [email protected] Twitter: johnkingsfchronicle

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