Dark days are coming for Lebanon as the crisis unfolds

Beirut (AFP) – Last year was nothing short of the earthquake that struck Lebanon, hit by economic collapse, mass protests, financial meltdown, virus outbreak and the catastrophic explosion that virtually wiped out the main port of the country.

However, the Lebanese fear that darker days are coming.

The country’s foreign reserves are drying up, the local currency is expected to get out of control, and incidents of armed clashes between rival groups escalate. The quarreling politicians were unable to form a government, making the international rescue plan out of reach.

Last week, a French initiative to form a government of specialists collapsed when political factions split along familiar fault lines, deepened by the rivalry between the United States and Iran.

The country risks slipping into chaos.

“In the absence of a major change in the political calculations of either side, the coming weeks will witness continued stalemate, and a transitional government that lacks the ability to implement any serious reforms and accelerate the economic collapse,” said Mike Azar, a former member of the Johns Hopkins Science Center. Professor of Finance.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan is widely seen as the last chance to find a way out of Lebanon’s most dangerous crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. It included a six-month timeline for a small government of non-partisan experts to implement reforms. And because it distrusts Lebanon’s notoriously corrupt leaders, the West has made billions of dollars in aid conditional on these reforms.

Lebanese politicians initially adhered to the plan and appointed a new prime minister, Mustafa Adib, who promised to introduce the government within two weeks. To avoid the usual bargaining between factions over ministries, Adeeb tried to choose his names to form the government.

But the two main Shiite parties, Hezbollah and Amal, accused him of acting on behalf of their domestic political opponents. They insisted on naming the Shiite cabinet members and keeping the finance ministry for their sect. Adib refused and resigned on Saturday.

Despite all the pressure exerted on the factions to put aside their usual self-interests and maneuvers, there is another force that is partly pushing them deeper: the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran.

The Trump administration ramped up its campaign to put maximum pressure on Iran and its proxy militias, including Hezbollah, ahead of the US elections on November 3.

And imposed sanctions on two senior politicians loyal to Hezbollah, including the former finance minister, amid efforts to form a government. This raised suspicions that Washington was seeking to isolate Hezbollah and reduce its role in any new government.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo publicly rebuked Macron for meeting with Hezbollah officials during his visit to Lebanon, and promised a broader set of sanctions targeting the group and its local allies.

Hazem El Amin, a Lebanese journalist and anti-Hezbollah columnist, wrote that the militant group has effectively placed the Lebanese public in the midst of an “open confrontation” with the United States.

He wrote on the Arab Daraj news site, he said that the United States is looking to pressure Hezbollah before the elections, while Hezbollah is trying to wait for the Trump administration, and is betting on a new president.

But can Lebanon wait?

Last week, Lebanese President Michel Aoun, an ally of Hezbollah, could not have been more forthcoming when a reporter asked him where Lebanon is headed if a new government had not been formed.

He replied, “To hell of course.”

Speaking at a news conference on Sunday, Macron said he was “ashamed” of Lebanese political leaders and warned of a “new civil war” if they could not put personal and sectarian interests aside to open international aid.

This assistance is needed more than ever before, and there is still worse for the Lebanese in the country’s slide to the bottom.

In the next few weeks, the central bank is expected to end commodity support. Since the collapse of the local currency, the bank has been using its depleting reserves to support imports of fuel, wheat and medicine.

Indeed, after the financial crisis hit, half of the population was below the poverty line. Lifting subsidies will increase inflation and lead to food riots. Civil unrest will pit residents against frustrated security forces who – like other Lebanese – have seen their salaries drop by as much as 80% in US dollars.

“The threat is very real.” Heiko Wimin, Project Manager for Lebanon, Iraq and Syria at the International Crisis Group, said, “There have been two security incidents over the past month that show the presence of weapons in abundance, and there are also youths who are unemployed.”

He said that the power wars between local armed groups may become a daily occurrence in areas not controlled by any political actor and could expand once groups that are motivated by sectarian and political motives are involved.

Meanwhile, everyday life becomes more difficult.

Beirut landfill is nearing its maximum capacity, threatening a new waste crisis. Hospitals are struggling to deal with the financial crisis amid an increase in coronavirus cases, prompting warnings of a scenario similar to that of Italy. Medicines are difficult to find. Poverty and crime are on the rise, along with sectarian tensions fueled by politicians seeking to hold onto their seats.

The August 4 bombing in the port of Beirut – which has been blamed on the political leadership’s corruption and incompetence – did not only cause pain, death and damage. It dealt another blow to the economy. The World Bank estimated that the losses of economic activity attributed to the explosion ranged between $ 2.9 billion and $ 3.5 billion. Public sector reconstruction and recovery will require between $ 1.8 billion and $ 2.2 billion – money nowhere on the horizon.

Even if a government is formed, Lebanon will not emerge from the jungle. The IMF negotiations failed in July because the Lebanese parties could not agree with each other.

Weimin said that the core of the problem is the political elites who have taken over the state to smash and plunder it.

“The bottom line is that financial sector reform and the budget – the two main issues that the IMF is supposed to address – must mean that the interest of some people with political influence is compromised, so there is a lot of conflict potential,” he said.

Azar gave a similar gloomy look. He said, “Given that the economic collapse in Lebanon is a self-inflicted injury due to a defect in the political system, it is unlikely that any economic recovery will be sustainable without a radical rethinking of the political system.”

The longer the time, the more opportunities are lost, the more brain-draining and the more difficult the direction becomes.

“When companies close down and human capital migrates, it becomes difficult for any economy to recover because the engines of this recovery will not be there,” he said.

___

Editor’s note: Zina Karam, director of news for Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, has covered the Middle East since 1996. Follow her on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zkaram.

.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos