How close are we to the next earthquake in the Himalayas?

The next large earthquakes along the Himalayan ranges should occur roughly 500 to 1,000 years after the most recent event at each location. For some sites here, this time has already passed; For others, 1,000 years will pass from now, according to a new study.

Citing Stephen Wisnowski, a paleontologist at the University of Nevada, IIT-Roorkee’s Akash Kharita writes that the finding is based on studying earthquake data at 30 sites along the Himalayan Arc.

Building earthquake-resistant infrastructure

Wesnousky’s study has been published in Seismology Research Letters. “When (these earthquakes) occur? Nobody can say exactly. However, damage can be minimized by building earthquake-resistant infrastructure and developing emergency response plans.”

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“Check the National Disaster Management Authority website to see how you can be prepared. Remember that during an earthquake if you are outside, go out in the open and stay away from anything that might fall on you. If you are indoors, drop it, cover it and stick to it.” .

Assam earthquake 1950 sets the trend?

If Wesnousky is right, the arc may be ready to rupture at multiple locations, potentially triggering a series of great earthquakes similar to the last earthquake sequence in Alaska where the devastating earthquakes occurred in 1906, 1946, 1957, 1964 and 1965.

Wisnowski says that the magnitude 8.7 earthquake that struck Assam on 15 August 1950 may have started in a similar sequence in the Himalayas. The earthquake was devastating in both Assam and Tibet, killing 4,800 people. It has also been observed that loud noises have been reported throughout the area.

Also read: A major Himalayan earthquake is coming. but when?

“Sufficient pressure has been building up in the Himalayas along the main Himalayan invasion for years,” says Wisnowski. This pent-up stress, he says, could produce a series of massive earthquakes, with multiple events greater than 8.5 degrees (M8.5).

It requires deeper research

“As terrifying as it sounds, we should expect earthquakes with a strong momentum of magnitude 8.5 (or greater) to occur again in the Himalayas,” says Roland Burgmann, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who was not part of the study.

But Roger Pelham, a research scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA, says the weakness in studies such as the Wisnowski study is that the available data only record one large earthquake. Researchers may want to see the 10,000-year-old earthquake record – multiple earthquake cycles – at each site to determine the intervals between large earthquakes.

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