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Conflicting tales – consequences persist
It was Saturday 8:50 am, a regular school day, when a 7.6 magnitude earthquake shook the northern parts of Pakistan. Nearly 20,000 children died while attending the classes. In total, about 85,000 people died, 140,000 others were injured, 3.5 million were made homeless and 0.6 million homes were severely damaged. This year, as we celebrate our fifteenth anniversary, we must address this question – who is responsible for these heavy losses? Was it the earthquake, bad construction, or both? Those who think it was the earthquake should reconsider this. Why did some buildings collapse and others not? Why were most school buildings constructed by the government flattened to the ground while most buildings built by the private sector remained intact? Most likely the corrupt officials, not the earthquake, are responsible for most of the losses.
Of course, Pakistan has accomplished a lot in the last fifteen years. We developed public policy, improved legislation on disaster management, created better management structures, and built skills. However, enforcement of building codes and disaster risk reduction remains weak despite several massive disasters since 2005.
To understand this emptiness, I have been visiting Balakot almost every year. Our NGO, Bataan, established the first tent village for displaced families on the right bank of the Konhar River, Balakot, in the aftermath of the earthquake. In 2015, to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the earthquake, Bataan conducted a study to assess the degree and quality of reconstruction and recovery in light of the “build from the back better” policy. We interviewed more than 300 households (38% of which lost one or more family members) in 20 locations and held focus group discussions with stakeholders.
The results of the study were alarming as 65% of the participants reported that they did not build their homes and shops according to the earthquake-resistant ERA design, their economic situation worsened and reciprocity among the community members decreased. While 77% were likely to feel insecure from future earthquakes, the government had not taken concrete measures to reduce disaster risk. More than 75% of respondents were praising the military, NGOs, and donors for their generous support in time after the disaster. Only a small percentage of them rated the government and political parties positively. This was a collective and sweeping story in 2015 and today – conflicting with those responsible.
Although some studies and indicators claim an impressive improvement in social and human development in the Mansehra region since 2005, they would have scored higher if all the affected schools had been built and equipped with the required facilities earlier. Keep this in mind: The ERRA website shows that by September 2020, only 60% had been completed, while 40% (2,275) had not been built or under construction. The SDPI study showed that only 25% of schools have the necessary facilities in the region. The district census of 1998 shows a literacy rate of 36% (males 51% and females 23%), which increased by only 3% by 2005. During the period 1998-2005, there was little progress in the social sector with 19 schools established. Only new ones, without adding the health sector in the region, which is a cause for concern given the global pandemic.
Our plan was to do a similar study in 2020. The Covid-19 virus curbed our plan but not our enthusiasm. A few days ago, we drove the newly built highway to Mansehra.
To conduct our survey, we visited the city of Balakot and the infamous site of New Balakot in Bakrill. We had focus group discussions with Hazara University scientists and some earthquake survivors. Here are some of our observations and stories of survivors.
Fifteen years later, Balakot appears to be looking normal again as tents and prefab installations with blue roofs are almost gone, and many of those we meet have forgotten the day and date of the earthquake. But they clearly remember what happened to them on the morning of October 8. Is it sufficient for them to be safe from future disasters? Experts believe that disasters happen when vulnerability interacts with danger. Some scientists argue, “All mammals including humans mediate fear conditioning through an area of the brain called the amygdala.” If they encounter the same threat over and over again, the “fear conditioning” is deepened which helps improve alertness. However, the essential question is: Can a single accident create enough “fear conditioning” among the affected people? Probably not, especially when the stakes are invisible. Raising awareness and building capacity appears to be the answer, but only partially. Instilling fear of loss and punishing violators through strict enforcement of the rules appears to be required.
Construction was banned in Balakot shortly after the disaster because it is on a fault line, but officials looked the other way as construction accelerated. Also in non-red areas, the survivors did not build their homes according to the earthquake-resistant design. When we asked people about it, some answered, “We arrived at the design when we really started building,” and others said, “The new design was not practical because it prevented us from using wood,” a staple material in the region. They said, “Authorities forced us to use steel, cement, and sand for reconstruction. An official might refuse to release compensation money if we did not use the materials prescribed to them. Ignore local facts. Carrying steel bars and cement / sand bags to the hilltops was very expensive and difficult as there were no roads. We did not have running water in many villages, which is necessary for modern construction. ”
But we rebounded so hard that state officials began interfering in our efforts without consulting us. It damaged our resilience. The reconstruction in Old Balakot and the lack of construction on the New Palakot site tells us everything about our disaster management. “.
When I asked Ahmed, a resident of Gabi village about the new city of Balakot, he said, “People say after the 2010 floods, the government transferred most of the money allocated to the new city of Balakot to Multan and BISP.” Perhaps he echoed the statements of the judge authorized the charity of the Supreme Court, which he made during the hearing of the case about the plight of the survivors. Judge Ahsan had said, “The money that was intended for the victims was spent instead on the metro and BISP.”
Mrs. Hira, a researcher at Hazara University, shared her ordeal but found a positive side to the disaster. “Although the earthquake was short-lived, it dampened the differences between men and women in our area. With normal life returning, restrictions crept back in.” Scholars unanimously felt the need for a disaster management department because the region faces multiple disasters regularly. When I asked them to respond to the need to establish a disaster museum in Mansehra, they all agreed.
Tourism has been a major source of livelihood in the Mansehra region for decades. To understand its growth and impact, we traveled to Naran. The hotels dotted all over the road cannot be ignored – a positive sign. Unfortunately, many of them seem to be extremely vulnerable because they are built on steep edges.
Muhammad Safdar, a waiter, told us, “At the time of the earthquake I was only six years old. My school was completely damaged. I never went back to school because it had been closed for several months. During that time, I became a child worker and since then I work.”
Joseph Stalin once said: “The death of a man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.” Safdar’s story is very painful, but it is missing from the official statistics.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 6, 2020.
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