An alpine earthquake would cut across the west coast, and cause havoc on the highway

The disruption to transportation networks caused by the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake gave a taste of the disruption expected from an earthquake in the Alps. Image / Nelson Marlboro rescue helicopter

A new model simulated the disruption of a major earthquake in the Alps on the South Island’s transportation network – cutting the West Coast for at least a week.

The fault, which extends about 600 kilometers on the west side of the South Island between Milford Sound and Marlborough, is one of New Zealand’s biggest natural threats – especially the West Coast, Canterbury and Otago.

It has a clear geological record of rupturing every three centuries – and 2017 marked the 300th anniversary of an 8.1-magnitude earthquake that shifted the western side of the rift to the north by eight meters in a matter of seconds.

Studies have indicated that a major earthquake could block South Island highways in more than 120 places, leave 10,000 people cut off, and cost the economy about $ 10 billion.

Various projections indicate that the probability of an earthquake in the Alpine region with a magnitude of more than 8.0 is up to 65 percent over the next 50 years – and nearly 85 percent over a 100-year period.

So a rupture of the fault was deemed inevitable, with massive damage to the built environment – especially to infrastructure – expected.

State Highway 73 (pictured) and parts of SH6 likely to remain closed six months after a major earthquake in the Alps. Photo / Ross Westford

After a 2019 study by University of Canterbury researcher in disaster risk and resilience, Alistair Davis, who measured potential damage to infrastructure over time periods ranging from a day to a decade, scientists have begun to look specifically at transportation.

As part of the National Resilient Science Challenge to Nature Challenges, University of Auckland engineering researcher Muhammad Agababei developed a cutting-edge model that collects about 541 “traffic areas”, transportation data about mobility, tourism and shipping, and a host of other criteria.

By simulating the impact of the M8.0 earthquake on the road network, it was found that almost all inter-district trips and some domestic travel in the hardest-hit Bowler, Gray and Westland regions would not be possible for at least a week after an earthquake.

After the first day, 70 percent, 86 percent, and 81 percent of trips in heavy vehicles such as trucks in those areas cannot happen.

As after the Kaikoura earthquake in 2016, commuters were putting more pressure on alternative roads – the model calculated the traffic flow on SH1, between Marlborough and SH7, would have swelled by a third a week later.

The SH6, which connects Nelson and Marlborough, could see 25 percent more traffic, and with the exception of a small portion of the SH6 connecting Gremouth to Hokitika, the rest of this highway connecting SH65 in the north with Lake Hawia near Queenstown in the south would also be impassable. to reach.

In the southwestern portion of the grid, the SH94 will also be completely disrupted connecting Milford Sound to Te Anau.

According to Davis’ study, six months after the earthquake, several lanes are accessible one to two days a week, including SH65, SH7, SH69 and SH6 connecting Hokitika to Franz Joseph.

But SH73, and some parts of SH6, which connects Westport to Greymouth, and Franz Josef to Lake Hawea, will remain closed.

SH65 and SH7, in particular, will see flows above normal due to road closures elsewhere.

“The main impact on travelers will be an increase in travel time due to the increase in distance traveled due to the closure,” Agapabei said.

“Travel times to Queenstown, for example, will increase by about 170 percent, 28 percent, and 54 percent to Westland, Bowler and Gray, respectively, compared to normal.”

Agapapai said the Kaikoura event had already provided a “unique opportunity” to put South Island’s road network models to the test.

“While traditional network analysis methods are used with a degree of uncertainty in travel demand behavior in a post-disaster scenario, validating the network using post-disaster travel data can help determine the reliability of simulation results.”

West Coast cities like Greymouth will be cut off by road for at least a week after the earthquake. Photo / Ross Westford

Transportation agency Waka Kotahi NZ told the Herald that the rupture of the Alpine fault will leave several parts of the highway network inaccessible to workers due to the risks posed by aftershocks.

“This means that rebuilding the damaged portions of the highway network will also take several months,” said Pete Connors, the agency’s system manager for West Coast and Canterbury.

He pointed to hazards such as rockslides, slides, rivers and creek basins emptying and forming new paths, as seen in the Kaikoura earthquake, and even this year’s February storm in Fiordland.

He said, “Bridges that tend to be at narrow river or creek crossing points are particularly vulnerable to this scenario.”

“ While we have emergency response plans based on widely agreed principles, we also have to be prepared to respond based on the effects of the earthquake in reality, deploying resources where they can get the most benefit and also realizing that we cannot put people in areas where their lives are. Where they are at risk. “

On a larger scale, scientists, authorities, and emergency planners have been working together as part of an all-out nationwide effort called Project AF8.

The project developed scenarios so that South Island communities could plan how they would respond to impacts such as road closures, energy losses, disruption, deaths and injuries.

Building on its first seven days of emergency response, AF8 planning covered things like how to house tens of thousands of stranded people – and how to provide immediate medical care.

The robot scans the Kaikoura Canyon after an earthquake

Meanwhile, a six-meter-long orange robot is flying underwater across the Kaikoura Valley for the next month to gather information on how the valley has changed since the 2016 earthquake.

The technology-laden AUV – or autonomous underwater vehicle – is being deployed from the Newa Research Ship Tangaroa with the information gathered expected to shed light on what is happening to offshore areas like this one.

This is the first time that this technology has been used to survey submerged canyons in New Zealand waters, and the information gathered will lead to a new understanding related to many continental edges of the world, said Dr Joshua Mountjoy, Niwa’s leader and marine geologist.

“Submerged canyons are the bridge between land and the depths of the oceans, linking sedimentary systems, capturing carbon and supporting rich ecosystems,” he said.

“We have very little knowledge of what is happening to these marine hotspots after massive disruptions like the Kaikoura earthquake, so we need to make the most of this opportunity.”

The AUV is programmed from the ship and then conducts its reconnaissance while the team on the ship can resume other scientific work.

The focus so far has been on the central valley down, about 20 km off the coast of Kaikoura.

It was flying 50 meters above the sea floor, returning data with a higher resolution than was previously possible.

The underwater robot is deployed from the aft of the Newa Research Ship Tangaroa in the Kaikoura Valley which has changed dramatically after the 2016 earthquake. Photo / Lana Young.

“Our previous surveys were conducted from a ship that is 2,000 meters from the seabed,” he said.

“We have never collected AUV data or deployed sediment traps in our canyons, so this is the first. But we hope to start a new era of high-resolution canyon monitoring.”

Two surveys of Niwa have been conducted since the earthquake discovered large areas of the Kaikoura Canyon that have changed dramatically.

An enormous amount of mud and sediments – estimated at about 850 million metric tons – was dumped from the edge of the valley and then flowed into the canal, causing a strong “flow” of sediments into the depths of the ocean.

“We are mostly interested in understanding the physical process that removed an enormous amount of sediment and rocks from the valley,” said Mountjoy.

“This is a rare opportunity because we know from our previous work that there has been a very big change recently and this is unusual in the deep ocean.”

This influx instantly transformed the valley from a biodiversity hotspot filled with dense numbers of large invertebrates and abundant fish species into an arid and nearly uninhabited area.

But Niwa’s survey 10 months after the earthquake found signs of an early recovery.

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