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Earth’s crust movement in Southern California tells of earthquake hazards

Earth’s crust movement in Southern California tells of earthquake hazards

 


Earthquakes are among the most dangerous natural hazards in Southern California, where millions of people live. A network of fractures intersect the area, including the iconic San Andreas fault and a series of faults in transverse ranges north of Los Angeles. The movement of the crust generated by this geological saw means that potentially destructive earthquakes are inevitable.

The transverse ranges, a group of mountains facing east to west, are of particular concern to seismologists. Across these ranges, the Earth’s crust is shrinking or shortening by about 10-15 mm per year. Previous research into this movement indicates that the accumulated stress will eventually lead to a massive earthquake. Despite this risk, the lack of accurate geodetic measurements masked the complete seismic picture.

In a new study, Johnson et al. Use accurate measurements of the earth’s surface to examine the vertical movement of transverse ranges along the faults. The researchers applied what is known as a kinematic model to explain the rates, patterns, and trends of active cortical deformation. Most previous modeling efforts used simplified 2D or 3D error geometry, but in this work the authors have combined the vertical and horizontal motion of transverse bands with additional data such as outdoor geological maps and fault maps into a 3D model.

The authors found different rates and characteristics of fault slip potential at transverse bands. Whereas inland movement results in a permanent elevation, shoreline deformation can be shifted by future seismic events. For example, the next major earthquake could change the direction of the crumbling coast of Santa Barbara. The researchers report that the accumulated crustal motion in the Santa Barbara Canal and the San Fernando Valley-Los Angeles Basin region is equivalent to two earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 every 100 years.

The results improve understanding of earthquake risk in Southern California and restrict the fault-slip elasticity-strain model at western transversal ranges. The authors note that the results also help solve critical questions about the Earth’s surface along the Santa Barbara coast. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB019672, 2020)

Aaron Seder, science writer

Text © 2020. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 Unless otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without the express permission of the copyright holder is prohibited.

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