Earthquake risk weaved into city resilience plans

The Ridgecrest earthquakes in Southern California shook most of the state, as well as parts of Arizona, Nevada and Mexico, when three initial shocks on a scale (M) of 6.4, 5.4 and 7.1 echoed across the Garlock fault region in July 2019.

There is now a 2.3% chance that a portion of the Garlock fault will witness an earthquake of 7.5 M or more next year, which triples the probability of a large earthquake in the San Andreas fault area, near Bakersfield, to 1.15% next year, according to a recent study. Published in the Bulletin of the American Seismological Society. In contrast, cities face an increasing need to prepare for such a disaster.

However, earthquake risks and the need for community preparedness go beyond California. Scott Brandenberg, professor of civil and environmental engineering at New York University, said fracking is causing earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas, while parts of the Midwest and South are at risk due to the New Madrid seismic zone in Missouri and a major fault near Charleston, South Carolina. California, Los Angeles. Brandenberg specializes in research on geotechnical earthquake engineering.

“You cannot find a place in the United States where earthquakes are not a risk that must be taken into account when designing and building infrastructure,” he said.

A look at the SF’s Building Resilience Plan

To prepare for the severe shocks of a very strong earthquake, cities must first prioritize building resilience.

“There is recognition that we will not make our infrastructure earthquake-proof. There is no way that can be affordable for everyone. So flexibility is the key,” Brandenberg said. “Resilience is not about preventing harm from occurring. It’s about being prepared so that you can recover quickly without much disruption in society.”

San Francisco can be considered a case study of this building preparation. For years, Bill Barnes, senior policy and communications advisor for San Francisco City and County, said that the city developed a Community Seismic Action Plan to address local earthquake risks, assessing different types of property and how they recover.

The city has placed particular emphasis on soft storey buildings, which are multi-level structures that have a hollow floor like a car park. Barnes said that many of these buildings are home to residents, so not altering these properties could result in loss of life and housing.

To mitigate this, officials developed a Mandatory Soft Story Retrofit Program (MSSP) in 2013 to support tax-exempt modifications that could seismically enhance these buildings. The work on this program is expected to be completed by September 2021.

“Nobody wants to spend money to fix something to protect themselves from what appears to be a hypothetical risk,” Brandenberg said of cities ’requirements for building retrofits.“ So I think these are really good decrees. These repairs won’t He never spoke without government mandate, but that is not without controversy. “

Barnes said San Francisco was also one of the first American cities to study earthquake hazards on tall buildings and develop a safety strategy for this type of infrastructure.

“Urban planners and others say we should build taller buildings because we can benefit from infrastructure, transit and all the reasons why you have dense housing in the heart of the city,” he said. “But then a question arises and so do we build this: How do these buildings function in the event of an earthquake?”

San Francisco voters also approved $ 682.5 million earthquake safety and emergency response bonds in March that bolster critical infrastructure, such as 911 call centers and high-powered water systems to keep the fires out. Nearby health centers, often run by the city, receive upgrades such as emergency energy through bonds.

Altogether, San Francisco allocates millions annually to earthquake preparedness, but understanding where to invest this money is a difficult decision that many cities and counties face as they prepare, Brandenberg said.

He said, “It’s a complex problem because all of these systems depend on each other. For example, we need electricity to operate the pumps to transport the water. Often times, they are managed and operated by different facilities, so getting them to work together is a challenge. If the electricity goes out. We can’t transport the water. This creates problems with firefighting. It’s very complicated. So it’s very difficult to actually calculate the cost there. “

Preventing post-earthquake fires

In addition to the risks of infrastructure collapse, earthquake shocks can disrupt gas lines that cause fires. In some cases, shocks can break water lines at the same time and hinder firefighting efforts, as was the case in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake that killed more than 3,000 people.

After the 1994 Northridge earthquake near San Diego, Los Angeles County placed a requirement for homes to have automatic gas shutoff valves. Brandenberg said Los Angeles is now working on the ability to quickly shut down city-owned gas lines and other vital facilities if an earthquake is imminent.

“If we can prevent these things from having serious consequences, then that could be a real benefit for early warning,” he said.

The Los Angeles Department of Water and Energy is also working to replace some large water lines with high-tech ductile iron pipes that can protect groundwater distribution in the event of an earthquake.

Preparedness in the era of COVID-19

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has increased the consequences of a natural disaster for the city, as already strained hospitals struggle to meet the demand of those in need. Local government budgets are also tied, Brandenberg said, which could slow any progress on resilience initiatives.

Barnes said the pandemic has not stopped any seismic projects yet, but that may change as COVID-19 continues to spread across the United States.

“As the economy slows, the city budget will decrease,” Barnes said. “Capital projects are one of the first things that often get delayed because they don’t require layoffs or anything like that. So we’ll wait and see if there is a federal incentive or not or if there is a statewide effort to help local governments. The big picture for the future question. “

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