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New research indicates that earthquakes may not be as random as thought

New research indicates that earthquakes may not be as random as thought

 


Extremely fast earthquakes, when energy is released in a matter of seconds through high-frequency waves, are not as common as “slow earthquakes” but may be deadly. Keystone / Roberto Salomone

“Any kind of error can lead to many different types of seismic events,” says Francois Basilig, a scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) who has spent the past 10 years trying to understand how and why earthquakes occur.

This content was published on October 17, 2020 – 15:08 October 17, 2020 – 15:08

swissinfo.ch/gw

Basilig recently made a breakthrough in uncovering the rupture mechanisms that ultimately lead to seismic transitions.

To study fault dynamics – the regions between tectonic plates where most earthquakes occur – the scientist has developed an error that simulates the same temperature and pressure conditions as an actual fault with a depth of 8 kilometers. He installed sensors along the fault to identify the factors causing the slow and rapid rupture.

Earthquakes can be either slow or fast. In slow earthquakes, the surrounding Earth can absorb seismic waves. They occur frequently but cannot be felt by humans. Extremely fast earthquakes, which are less common, have high-frequency waves that release energy in seconds, with potentially deadly consequences.

Until now, scientists thought that the type of rock might be a factor in the speed of rupture. But Basilig’s experiments showed that the amount of energy released during the slip and the period during which it is released depend on the initial stress exerted by the moving tectonic plates along the fault line. Higher strains caused faster rupture and lower strains caused slower rupture.

“Most people think that faults that have been stable for a long time will not cause a serious earthquake,” Basilig says. But we found that any kind of error can lead to many different types of seismic events. This means that a fault that appears benign can suddenly explode, resulting in dangerous rapid wave propagation.

Although the model he developed cannot be used to determine when or where an earthquake will occur, his findings indicate that earthquakes are not as random as previously thought.

His findings have been published in Nature Communications.

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